Assessment of future wind speed and wind power changes over South Greenland using the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional regional climate model
Assessment of future wind speed and wind power changes over South Greenland using the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional regional climate model
复制标题
使用 Modèle Atmosphérique Régional 区域气候模型评估格陵兰岛南部未来的风速和风力变化
DOI：
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Ernst
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Lambin;X. Fettweis;C. Kittel;Michaël Fonder;D. Ernst
风能是一种无限可再生能源，在空间和时间上分布不均匀。能源需求和能源资源丰富（但偏远）地区的互联将有助于防止在不再使用化石燃料的世界中出现能源短缺。以前的研究表明，南格陵兰和西欧有互补的风况。特别是，格陵兰岛南端的告别角（Cape Farewell）对风力发电场的开发越来越感兴趣，因为它是地球上风最大的地方之一。为了获得关于南格陵兰未来风速变化的新见解，通过对最有可能安装风力涡轮机的苔原的现场观测进行验证，使用Modèle Atmosphere érique Régional（MAR）通过缩小CMIP 6地球系统模型（ESM）的集合来建立排放情景SSP 5 - 8.5下的气候预测。在1981年至2100年期间，100 m a.g.l.处的风速预计将下降约-0.8 m·s-1。在告别角周围的苔原上这种减少在冬季特别明显，而在夏季，预计沿着冰盖边缘的风速加速。对不同垂直高度的二维风速变化的分析表明，冬季风速下降可能是由于大尺度环流变化，而在夏季，由于冰盖与周围环境之间的温度对比增强，沿冰盖流下的下降风预计会增加。至于涡轮机可以产生的平均年最大风力功率，预计在100 m a.g.l.时减少约-178.1 W。同样，这种下降在冬季尤其明显。考虑到格陵兰南部冬季风速很高，如果风速太高，风力涡轮机可能会被切断，预计风速下降可能有利于在告别角附近建立风力发电场。
Wind is an infinitely renewable energy source that is not evenly distributed in space and time. The interconnection of energy‐demanding and energy‐resourceful (yet remote) regions would help prevent energy scarcity in a world where fossil fuels are no longer used. Previous studies have shown that South Greenland and West Europe have complementary wind regimes. In particular, the southern tip of Greenland, Cape Farewell, has gained growing interest for wind farm development as it is one of the windiest places on Earth. In order to gain new insights about future wind speed variations over South Greenland, the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR), validated against in situ observations over the tundra where wind turbines are most likely to be installed, is used to build climate projections under the emission scenario SSP5‐8.5 by downscaling an ensemble of CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs). It appeared that between 1981 and 2100, the wind speed is projected to decrease by ~−0.8 m·s−1 at 100 m a.g.l. over the tundra surrounding Cape Farewell. This decrease is particularly marked in winter while in summer, a wind speed acceleration is projected along the ice sheet margins. An analysis of two‐dimensional wind speed changes at different vertical levels indicates that the winter decrease is likely due to a large‐scale circulation change while in summer, the katabatic winds flowing down the ice sheet are expected to increase due to an enhanced temperature contrast between the ice sheet and the surroundings. As for the mean annual maximum wind power a turbine can yield, a decrease of ~−178.1 W is projected at 100 m a.g.l. Again, the decrease is especially pronounced in winter. Considering the very high winter wind speeds occurring in South Greenland which can cut off wind turbines if too intense, the projected wind speed decrease might be beneficial for the establishment of wind farms near Cape Farewell.