A Two-Tiered Approach to Long-Range Climate Forecasting
A Two-Tiered Approach to Long-Range Climate Forecasting
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DOI：
10.1126/science.261.5124.1026
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发表时间：
1993-08
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Lennart Bengtsson;U. Schlese;E. Roeckner;Mojib Latif;T. Barnett;Nicholas E. Graham
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lennart Bengtsson;U. Schlese;E. Roeckner;Mojib Latif;T. Barnett;Nicholas E. Graham
利用热带太平洋海表温度预报模式，结合大气环流模式，进行了长期全球气候预报。海温是在未来很长一段时间内首先预测的。然后，这些海洋预报被用来强迫大气模式，从而在海温预报之前产生气候预报。该技术对1970年代至1990年代7次大型气候事件的预测与全球许多地区的观测结果非常吻合。
Long-range global climate forecasts were made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of seven large climatic events of the 1970s to 1990s by this technique are in good agreement with observations over many regions of the globe.