An End-Use Approach to Demand Forecasting
An End-Use Approach to Demand Forecasting
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需求预测的最终用途方法
DOI：
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发表时间：
1981
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Broehl
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Broehl
详细的最终用途模型在预测电力系统的能源需求方面越来越受欢迎。本文描述了终端用户方法在需求预测和负荷形状分析中的扩展。在该方法中，明确区分了使用模式和使用水平。特定最终用途的使用模式由一系列使用因素定义。对于对天气不敏感的最终用途，使用因素是时间的函数（即一天中的时间、日类型和月份）；而对于天气敏感的最终用途，它们是时间和复合天气变量的函数。该模型结构已成功实现，用于分析和模拟不同假设下的系统负载形状。
Detailed end-use models are increasingly popular for forecasting energy requirements for electric utility systems. This paper describes an extension of the end-use approach to demand forecasting and loadshape analysis. In the approach a clear distincting between the pattern of usage and the level of usage is made. The pattern of usage for a particular end-use is defined by a sequence of use factors. For weather insensitive end-uses, the use factors are functions of time (i. e., time of day, day type, and month); while for the weather sensitive end-uses, they are functions of time as well as a camposite weather variable. The model structure has been implemented successfully for a number of utilities to analyze and simulate system loadshapes under different assumptions.