The Economic Effects of Brexit: Evidence from the Stock Market
The Economic Effects of Brexit: Evidence from the Stock Market
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DOI：
10.1111/1475-5890.12175
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发表时间：
2018-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
7.3
通讯作者：
Usman, Ahmed
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Breinlich, Holger;Leromain, Elsa;Usman, Ahmed
我们研究了股市对2016年6月23日英国脱欧公投的反应，以评估投资者对脱欧对英国经济影响的预期。我们的研究结果表明，最初的股价波动是由对周期性经济衰退的担忧和公投后英镑贬值所驱动的。我们还发现初步证据表明，市场对特蕾莎·梅随后两次演讲（保守党大会和兰开斯特众议院演讲）的反应与英国-欧盟贸易关税和非关税壁垒的潜在变化更密切相关，这表明投资者可能已经根据“硬脱欧”的可能性更新了他们的预期。我们没有发现不同行业的欧盟移民比例与股市回报率之间的相关性。
We study stock market reactions to the Brexit referendum on 23 June 2016 in order to assess investors' expectations about the effects of leaving the European Union on the UK economy. Our results suggest that initial stock price movements were driven by fears of a cyclical downturn and by the sterling depreciation following the referendum. We also find tentative evidence that market reactions to two subsequent speeches by Theresa May (her Conservative party conference and Lancaster House speeches) were more closely correlated with potential changes to tariffs and non-tariff barriers on UK-EU trade, indicating that investors may have updated their expectations in light of the possibility of a 'hard Brexit'. We do not find a correlation between the share of EU immigrants in different industries and stock market returns.