How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?
How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?
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DOI：
10.1007/s11113-010-9189-7
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发表时间：
2011-04-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Hardee, Karen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jiang, Leiwen;Hardee, Karen
尽管政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的综合评估模型（IAM）认为人口是温室气体排放的根本原因之一，但人口动态如何影响气候变化仍存在争议。关于气候变化的政策辩论很少提到人口问题。过去十年的研究大大增加了对人口与气候相互作用机制和复杂性的理解。研究表明，除了总人口规模的增长外，人口构成（即年龄、城乡居住和家庭结构）的变化也对气候系统产生重大影响。此外，影响、脆弱性和适应界的研究也表明，人口动态在短期内对建设气候变化抗御能力和适应战略至关重要。本文探讨了全球人口动态如何影响碳排放和气候系统，最近的人口趋势如何影响全球适应气候变化的努力，以及人口政策如何为减缓和适应气候变化带来影响。
Although integrated assessment models (IAM) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) consider population as one of the root causes of greenhouse gas emissions, how population dynamics affect climate change is still under debate. Population is rarely mentioned in policy debates on climate change. Studies in the past decade have added significantly to understanding the mechanisms and complexity of population and climate interactions. In addition to the growth of total population size, research shows that changes in population composition (i.e. age, urban-rural residence, and household structure) generate substantial effects on the climate system. Moreover, studies by the impact, vulnerability and adaptation (IAV) community also reveal that population dynamics are critical in the near term for building climate change resilience and within adaptation strategies. This paper explores how global population dynamics affect carbon emissions and climate systems, how recent demographic trends matter to worldwide efforts to adapt to climate change, and how population policies could make differences for climate change mitigation and adaptation.