Measuring the effects of COVID-19-related disruption on dengue transmission in southeast Asia and Latin America: a statistical modelling study.
Measuring the effects of COVID-19-related disruption on dengue transmission in southeast Asia and Latin America: a statistical modelling study.
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DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(22)00025-1
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发表时间：
2022-05
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chen Y;Li N;Lourenço J;Wang L;Cazelles B;Dong L;Li B;Liu Y;Jit M;Bosse NI;Abbott S;Velayudhan R;Wilder-Smith A;Tian H;Brady OJ;CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
COVID-19疫情对社会造成前所未有的破坏，间接影响传染病动态。我们旨在评估新型冠状病毒相关干扰对登革热的影响，登革热是东南亚和拉丁美洲一个不断扩大的严重公共卫生威胁。我们收集了2014年1月至2019年12月期间来自世界卫生组织每周报告的登革热月发病率数据，来自ERA 5的气候数据和来自WorldPop的人口变量，并拟合贝叶斯回归模型来解释和预测季节性和多年登革热周期。我们将模型预测与2020年1月至12月报告的登革热数据进行了比较，并评估了自2020年3月以来预测发病率的偏差是否与特定的公共卫生和社会措施（来自牛津冠状病毒政府响应追踪数据库）或人类运动行为（根据谷歌移动报告测量）有关。我们发现，从2020年3月开始，许多登革热流行地区的登革热发病率持续下降（2020年为228万例，2019年为408万例;下降44.1%）。我们发现COVID-19相关的破坏（通过公共卫生和社会措施以及人类运动行为独立衡量）与登革热风险降低之间存在很强的关联，即使考虑到登革热周期的其他驱动因素，包括气候和宿主免疫力（相对风险0.01 - 0.17，p<0.01）。与关闭学校和减少在非居民区花费的时间有关的措施与登革热风险降低相关的证据最强，但协变量之间的高度共线性使得具体归因具有挑战性。总体而言，我们估计2020年发生的登革热病例减少了72万例（95% CI 0·12-1·47），可能归因于COVID-19相关的中断。在大多数国家，2019冠状病毒相关的破坏导致2020年登革热发病率处于历史低位。随着COVID-19相关限制的放松，对登革热发病率的持续监测将非常重要，并可能为传播过程和干预方案提供新的见解。国家重点研究发展计划和医学研究理事会。
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented disruption to society, which indirectly affects infectious disease dynamics. We aimed to assess the effects of COVID-19-related disruption on dengue, a major expanding acute public health threat, in southeast Asia and Latin America. We assembled data on monthly dengue incidence from WHO weekly reports, climatic data from ERA5, and population variables from WorldPop for 23 countries between January, 2014 and December, 2019 and fit a Bayesian regression model to explain and predict seasonal and multi-year dengue cycles. We compared model predictions with reported dengue data January to December, 2020, and assessed if deviations from projected incidence since March, 2020 are associated with specific public health and social measures (from the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracer database) or human movement behaviours (as measured by Google mobility reports). We found a consistent, prolonged decline in dengue incidence across many dengue-endemic regions that began in March, 2020 (2·28 million cases in 2020 vs 4·08 million cases in 2019; a 44·1% decrease). We found a strong association between COVID-19-related disruption (as measured independently by public health and social measures and human movement behaviours) and reduced dengue risk, even after taking into account other drivers of dengue cycles including climatic and host immunity (relative risk 0·01–0·17, p<0·01). Measures related to the closure of schools and reduced time spent in non-residential areas had the strongest evidence of association with reduced dengue risk, but high collinearity between covariates made specific attribution challenging. Overall, we estimate that 0·72 million (95% CI 0·12–1·47) fewer dengue cases occurred in 2020 potentially attributable to COVID-19-related disruption. In most countries, COVID-19-related disruption led to historically low dengue incidence in 2020. Continuous monitoring of dengue incidence as COVID-19-related restrictions are relaxed will be important and could give new insights into transmission processes and intervention options. National Key Research and Development Program of China and the Medical Research Council.