A sequential competitive bidding strategy considering inaccurate cost estimates
A sequential competitive bidding strategy considering inaccurate cost estimates
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DOI：
10.1016/j.omega.2013.04.004
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Yuichi Takano;Nobuaki Ishii;M. Muraki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yuichi Takano;Nobuaki Ishii;M. Muraki
本文建立了一个随机动态规划模型，用于确定竞价情形下的最优序贯竞价策略。在竞争性招标中，承包商通常通过在估计成本上加价来确定每个合同的投标价格，因此，投标价格会受到成本估计误差的影响。我们采用基于情景的方法来确定最优加价，以考虑不准确的成本估计的影响。我们还引入了风险价值约束，以减轻遭受巨额损失的风险。数值结果表明，该模型提高了平均利润，降低了利润波动风险。
This paper develops a stochastic dynamic programming model for establishing an optimal sequential bidding strategy in a competitive bidding situation. In competitive bidding, a contractor usually sets the bid price of each contract by putting a markup on the estimated cost, and consequently, the bid price is affected by a cost estimation error. We take a scenario-based approach to determine the optimal markup in consideration of the effect of inaccurate cost estimates. We also introduce a value-at-risk constraint to mitigate the risk of suffering a large loss. Numerical results show that our model increases the average profit and reduces the profit volatility risk.