Severe uncertainty and info‐gap decision theory
Severe uncertainty and info‐gap decision theory
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严重不确定性和信息差距决策理论
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发表时间：
2013
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通讯作者：
Gareth W. Peters
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作者：
K. Hayes;S. Barry;G. Hosack;Gareth W. Peters
信息差距决策理论（IGDT）旨在为严重不确定情况下的理性决策提供一个框架。该理论提出了不确定性的非概率模型，与其他不确定性理论相比，需要相对较少的信息输入。信息差距决策理论受到了批评，因为它基于的模型不能保证在严重不确定性的情况下做出好的决策，其中严重意味着“非常大”的不确定性空间以及对该空间中未知元素的初始估计非常差。本文回顾了这种方法在生态学中的应用，它在环境管理应用中引起了人们的兴趣。矛盾的是，IGDT 的生态应用几乎只关注生态问题中不确定性的一个来源，即模型参数不确定性，而通常忽略其他来源，特别是模型结构不确定性和参数之间的依赖性，这些来源可能同样严重。考虑使用 IGDT 的生态学家和管理者应仔细考虑其优点和缺点，不要在严重不确定的情况下将其作为默认方法，无论该术语如何定义。我们在实践中确定了 IGDT 的四个关注领域：对初始估计的敏感性、分析的局部性质、任意误差模型参数化以及合理性概念的临时引入。
Info‐gap decision theory (IGDT) seeks to provide a framework for rational decision‐making in situations of severe uncertainty. The theory proposes non‐probabilistic models of uncertainty and requires relatively small information inputs when compared to alternative theories of uncertainty. Info‐gap decision theory has been criticised because it is based upon models that do not guarantee good decisions in situations of severe uncertainty, where severe means a ‘very large’ uncertainty space and very poor initial estimates of the unknown elements in this space. This paper reviews the use of this method in ecology where it is receiving interest in applied environmental management applications. Paradoxically, ecological applications of IGDT focus almost exclusively on only one source of uncertainty in ecological problems, model parameter uncertainty, and typically ignore other sources, particularly model structure uncertainty and dependence between parameters, that can be just as severe. Ecologists and managers contemplating the use of IGDT should carefully consider its strengths and weaknesses, reviewed here, and not turn to it as a default approach in situations of severe uncertainty, irrespective of how this term is defined. We identify four areas of concern for IGDT in practice: sensitivity to initial estimates, localised nature of the analysis, arbitrary error model parameterisation and the ad hoc introduction of notions of plausibility.