Adaptive human behavior in epidemiological models
Adaptive human behavior in epidemiological models
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1011250108
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发表时间：
2011-04-12
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Villalobos, Cristina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fenichel, Eli P.;Castillo-Chavez, Carlos;Villalobos, Cristina
传染病的科学和管理正在进入一个新的阶段。管理流行病的公共政策越来越注重通过社会距离政策激励人们改变行为，减少接触，降低公共疾病风险。人与人之间的接触推动了人类疾病的发展。人们重视这种接触，并愿意接受一些疾病的风险，以获得接触相关的好处。影响接触行为以及流行病进程的成本-收益权衡往往只是隐含地纳入流行病学模型。这种方法在分析适应性行为的影响方面造成了困难。我们使用疾病动力学的流行病学-经济学模型来明确地模拟推动人与人接触决策的权衡。结果表明，包括自适应人类行为显着改变预测的流行病的过程中，这种包容性的参数估计和解释和社会距离政策的发展有影响。承认适应性行为需要改变对流行病学过程和参数的思考。
The science and management of infectious disease are entering a new stage. Increasingly public policy to manage epidemics focuses on motivating people, through social distancing policies, to alter their behavior to reduce contacts and reduce public disease risk. Person-to-person contacts drive human disease dynamics. People value such contacts and are willing to accept some disease risk to gain contact-related benefits. The cost-benefit trade-offs that shape contact behavior, and hence the course of epidemics, are often only implicitly incorporated in epidemiological models. This approach creates difficulty in parsing out the effects of adaptive behavior. We use an epidemiological-economic model of disease dynamics to explicitly model the trade-offs that drive person-to-person contact decisions. Results indicate that including adaptive human behavior significantly changes the predicted course of epidemics and that this inclusion has implications for parameter estimation and interpretation and for the development of social distancing policies. Acknowledging adaptive behavior requires a shift in thinking about epidemiological processes and parameters.