Secular Stagnation and Low Interest Rates under the Fear of a Government Debt Crisis
Secular Stagnation and Low Interest Rates under the Fear of a Government Debt Crisis
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DOI：
10.1111/jmcb.12909
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发表时间：
2022-01-29
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Ueda, Kozo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kobayashi, Keiichiro;Ueda, Kozo
在这项研究中，我们解释了背后的驱动力，长期停滞与利率持续下降，采用一个模型，其中包括政府债务积累引发的危机风险。该模型显示，对未来债务危机中大规模资本征税和资本错配的担忧几乎占日本过去20年经济放缓的一半。在同一时期，政府债券收益率下降，因为资本预期回报率的下降使投资政府债券比投资资本更具吸引力。
In this study, we explain the driving forces behind the secular stagnation associated with a persistent decrease in interest rates by employing a model that incorporates a crisis risk triggered by government debt accumulation. The model shows that fear of large-scale capital taxation and capital misallocation in future debt crises accounts for almost half the economic slowdown in Japan over the past two decades. Over the same period, the government bond yield declines, because a decrease in the expected returns on capital makes investing in government bonds more attractive than investing in capital.