Simpson's paradox and experimental research.
Simpson's paradox and experimental research.
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DOI：
10.1097/nnr.0b013e318199b517
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发表时间：
2009-03
期刊：
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Ward S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ameringer S;Serlin RC;Ward S
近年来，护理实验研究有了较大的增长。要提高这类研究的质量，关键是要减少对内部有效性的威胁。在护理文献中，一个没有得到足够重视的威胁是辛普森悖论--一种极端混乱的情况，可能导致对实验干预效果的错误结论。事实上，它可以得出干预效果的结论，而这与正确的推断相反。为了描述辛普森悖论，提供一个假设的例子，并讨论避免该悖论的方法。这种悖论是由于一个被忽视的混杂变量和该变量在试验组之间不成比例的分配所致。提出了避免这一悖论的不同设计和分析方法。辛普森悖论可以通过选择适当的实验设计和分析来避免，该实验设计和分析结合了混淆变量，从而获得了对治疗效果的明确估计，从而更准确地回答了研究问题。
Experimental research in nursing has increased considerably in recent years. To improve the quality of such research, it is critical to reduce threats to internal validity. One threat that has received inadequate attention in the nursing literature is Simpson's paradox--a case of extreme confounding that can lead to erroneous conclusions about the effects of an experimental intervention. In fact, it can lead to a conclusion about an intervention effect that is the opposite of the correct inference. To describe Simpson's paradox, provide a hypothetical example, and discuss approaches to avoiding the paradox. The paradox is due to the combination of an overlooked confounding variable and a disproportionate allocation of that variable among experimental groups. Different designs and analysis approaches that can be used to avoid the paradox are presented. Simpson's paradox can be avoided by selecting an appropriate experimental design and analysis that incorporates the confounding variable in such a way as to obtain unconfounded estimates of treatment effects, thus more accurately answering the research question.