Progress and Prospects of Research on Subseasonal to Seasonal Variability and Prediction of the East Asian Monsoon
Progress and Prospects of Research on Subseasonal to Seasonal Variability and Prediction of the East Asian Monsoon
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DOI：
10.1007/s13351-022-2059-5
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发表时间：
2022-10
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Congwen Zhu;Boqi Liu;Lun Li;Shuangmei Ma;Ninglin Jiang;Yuhan Yan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Congwen Zhu;Boqi Liu;Lun Li;Shuangmei Ma;Ninglin Jiang;Yuhan Yan
亚季节到季节（S2 S）变率代表了10-90天时间尺度上的大气扰动，是连接天气和气候的重要桥梁。2015年，中国气象局将WMO三年前启动的S2 S预报项目列为重点任务之一。经过5年的研究，东亚季风（EAM）S2 S变率的机制、气候变化的相关影响以及数值模式对S2 S时间尺度的可预报性等方面取得了重要进展。EAM的S2 S变率与中国极端持续性气候事件密切相关，是季节气候预测的重要指标。然而，在全球变暖和气候系统相互作用的影响下，EAM的S2 S变率非常复杂，其预测仍然是一个巨大的挑战。本文回顾了近年来东亚运动S2 S变率及其预测的研究成果，包括东亚运动S2 S主要模态的特征及其对中国极端事件的影响，内外强迫对S2 S变率的影响，以及气候模式在S2 S变率预测中的不确定性。重点介绍了中国气象科学研究院S2 S研究团队取得的进展。目前的瓶颈，未来的发展方向和关键的研究建议进行了分析和介绍。
Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) variability represents the atmospheric disturbance on the 10–90-day timescale, which is an important bridge linking weather and climate. In 2015, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) listed the S2S prediction project that was initiated by WMO programs three years ago as one of its key tasks. After five years of research, significant progress has been made on the mechanisms of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) S2S variability, related impact of climate change, as well as the predictability on the S2S timescale of numerical models. The S2S variability of the EAM is closely linked to extreme persistent climate events in China and is an important target for seasonal climate prediction. However, under the influence of global warming and the interactions among climate systems, the S2S variability of the EAM is so complex that its prediction remains a great challenge. This paper reviews the past achievement and summarizes the recent progress in research of the EAM S2S variability and prediction, including characteristics of the main S2S modes of the EAM, their impact on the extreme events in China, effects of external and internal forcing on the S2S variability, as well as uncertainties of climate models in predicting the S2S variability, with a focus on the progress achieved by the S2S research team of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences. The present bottlenecks, future directions, and critical research recommendations are also analyzed and presented.