Changes of total versus extreme precipitation and dry periods until the end of the twenty-first century: statistical assessments for the Mediterranean area
Changes of total versus extreme precipitation and dry periods until the end of the twenty-first century: statistical assessments for the Mediterranean area
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DOI：
10.1007/s00704-012-0639-5
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
E. Hertig;S. Seubert;A. Paxian;G. Vogt;H. Paeth;J. Jacobeit
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Hertig;S. Seubert;A. Paxian;G. Vogt;H. Paeth;J. Jacobeit
通过统计降尺度的方法评估了二十一世纪末地中海地区总降水量、极端降水量和干旱期的变化。使用描述大规模大气环流和热力学条件的预测因子的广义线性模型已应用于 A1B 和 B1 情景假设下的预测。结果主要表明，地中海西部和中北部地区夏季和秋季的总降水量和极端降水量减少，冬季增加。相比之下，在地中海东部地区，夏季和秋季降水量普遍增加，而冬季降水量则占主导地位。春季，整个地中海地区的总降水量和极端降水量普遍减少。总降水量和极端降水量的减少主要伴随着最大干旱期长度的增加。反之亦然，降水量增加通常伴随着最大干旱期长度的缩短。
Changes of total precipitation, extreme precipitation, and dry periods in the Mediterranean area until the end of the twenty-first century have been assessed by means of statistical downscaling. Generalized linear models using predictors describing the large-scale atmospheric circulation as well as thermodynamic conditions have been applied for the projections under A1B and B1 scenario assumptions. The results mostly point to reductions of total and extreme precipitation over the western and central-northern Mediterranean areas in summer and autumn and to increases in winter. In contrast, over the eastern Mediterranean area widespread precipitation increases are assessed in summer and autumn, whereas reductions dominate in winter. In spring, total and extreme precipitation decreases prevail over the whole Mediterranean area. Total and extreme precipitation decreases mostly come along with increases of the maximum dry period length. Vice versa precipitation increases are commonly accompanied by a shortening of the maximum dry period length.