Intercity Passenger Rails: Facilitating the Spatial Spillover Effects of Population and Employment Growth in the United States, 2000–2010
Intercity Passenger Rails: Facilitating the Spatial Spillover Effects of Population and Employment Growth in the United States, 2000–2010
复制标题
城际客运铁路：促进美国人口和就业增长的空间溢出效应，2000 年至 2010 年
DOI：
10.1061/(asce)up.1943-5444.0000477
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Chi, Guangqing
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kasu, Bishal Bhakta;Chi, Guangqing
本研究考察了2000年至2010年美国大陆县一级城际客运铁路与人口和就业增长的关系。本研究采用整合空间回归方法，结合空间滞后和空间误差依赖。这些数据来自美国人口普查局、交通统计局、土地可开发性指数和美国国家地图集。人口变化和就业变化在城际客运铁路上回归，控制了14个社会经济变量。城际客运铁路由每个县的城际客运铁路终端的数量来衡量。结果表明，城际客运铁路与人口和就业变化的关联既有直接的，也有间接的。2000年至2010年，城际客运铁路与人口和就业变化呈负相关和直接相关。这一时期的大衰退可能迫使人们离开家乡寻找工作;城际客运铁路促进了这一过程。研究结果还表明，城际客运铁路与人口和就业变化之间存在正相关和间接相关。一个县的人口变化和就业变化会影响相邻县的人口和就业。这种间接关联显示了人口和就业增长通过客运铁路的空间溢出效应。这种间接的关联不是来自于郡内，而是来自于邻区的分散效应。这项研究表明，城际客运铁路虽然建于很久以前，但在促进变革的传播和地方社区融入更大的区域经济方面仍然发挥着重要作用。
This research examines the association that intercity passenger rails have with population and employment growth at the county level in the continental United States from 2000 to 2010. This research adopts an integrated spatial regression approach that incorporates both spatial lag and spatial error dependence. The data come from the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the Land Developability Index, and the National Atlas of the United States. Population change and employment change are regressed on intercity passenger rails, controlling for 14 socioeconomic variables. Intercity passenger rails are measured by the number of intercity passenger rail terminals in each county. The results suggest that the associations that intercity passenger rails have with population and employment change are both direct and indirect. Intercity passenger rails have a negative and direct association with population and employment change from 2000 to 2010. The Great Recession during this period may have compelled people to move out of their home county in search of jobs; having intercity passenger rails facilitated this process. The results also indicate that intercity passenger rails have a positive and indirect association with population and employment change. Population change and employment change in one county affect population and employment in adjacent counties. This indirect association shows the spatial spillover effect of population and employment growth through passenger rails. The indirect association does not come from within the county; rather, it is a disperse effect from neighbors. This research suggests that intercity passenger rails, although built long ago, still play an important role in facilitating the spread of change and the integration of local communities into a larger regional economy.