Climate-change refugia: shading reef corals by turbidity
Climate-change refugia: shading reef corals by turbidity
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.13166
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发表时间：
2016-03-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
van Woesik, Robert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cacciapaglia, Chris;van Woesik, Robert
随着世界海洋持续变暖，珊瑚礁最近经历了前所未有的衰退。然而，全球气候模型揭示了海洋的不均匀变暖，这引发了人们寻找珊瑚可能在不久的将来生存的避难所。我们假设，一些浑浊的近岸环境可能作为气候变化的避难所，遮蔽珊瑚从高海面温度和高辐照度之间的有害相互作用。我们采取了分层贝叶斯方法来确定12种珊瑚物种在印度洋和太平洋的预期分布，在纬度37度N和37度S之间，到2100年代表性浓度路径8.5（Wm（-2））。在这项研究中确定的混浊近岸避难所位于纬度20-30度N和15-25度S之间，那里的浊度和潮汐波动之间有很强的耦合。我们的模型预测，浊度将减轻9%的浅礁栖息地（30米深）的高温漂白-栖息地，以前被认为是不适合海洋变暖。我们的模型还预测，浊度将保护一些珊瑚物种比其他物种更多地免受气候变化相关的热应力。我们还确定了持续高浊度可能会降低辐照度的位置，
Coral reefs have recently experienced an unprecedented decline as the world's oceans continue to warm. Yet global climate models reveal a heterogeneously warming ocean, which has initiated a search for refuges, where corals may survive in the near future. We hypothesized that some turbid nearshore environments may act as climate-change refuges, shading corals from the harmful interaction between high sea-surface temperatures and high irradiance. We took a hierarchical Bayesian approach to determine the expected distribution of 12 coral species in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, between the latitudes 37 degrees N and 37 degrees S, under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (Wm(-2)) by 2100. The turbid nearshore refuges identified in this study were located between latitudes 20-30 degrees N and 15-25 degrees S, where there was a strong coupling between turbidity and tidal fluctuations. Our model predicts that turbidity will mitigate high temperature bleaching for 9% of shallow reef habitat (to 30m depth) - habitat that was previously considered inhospitable under ocean warming. Our model also predicted that turbidity will protect some coral species more than others from climate-change-associated thermal stress. We also identified locations where consistently high turbidity will likely reduce irradiance to