Estimating non-Keynesian Effects for Japan
Estimating non-Keynesian Effects for Japan
复制标题
估计日本的非凯恩斯效应
DOI：
10.1111/j.1748-3131.2012.01238.x
复制
发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kameda;K.
财政刺激是否有效？自全球金融服务公司雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）倒闭以来，这个经典问题得到了大量研究关注。尽管大多数研究都认同凯恩斯乘数效应的存在，但一些研究也证明了非凯恩斯效应的存在。如何解释文献中缺乏共识？在本文中，我们的目标是通过估计一个近向量自回归系统来弥合这两种观点，该系统包括财政工具的相互作用条款，以及债务与国内生产总值（GDP）或主要赤字与GDP的比率。此外，为了在分析中嵌入债务与GDP之比的动态，我们明确地纳入了政府预算约束。通过计算和比较脉冲响应函数，我们发现当财政状况良好时存在凯恩斯效应，而当基本赤字较大时存在非凯恩斯效应。
Is a fiscal stimulus effective? This classical question has received significant research attention since the collapse of the global financial services firm Lehman Brothers. Although most studies agree on the existence of Keynesian multiplier effects, several studies also demonstrate the existence of non‐Keynesian effects. What explains this lack of consensus in the literature? In this paper, we aim to bridge the two views by estimating a near‐vector autoregressive system that includes interaction terms of fiscal instruments, and the debt‐to‐gross domestic product (GDP) or the primary‐deficit‐to‐GDP ratios. Moreover, to embed the dynamics of the debt‐to‐GDP ratio in the analysis, we explicitly incorporate the government budget constraint. By computing and comparing the impulse response functions, we find Keynesian effects when fiscal conditions are sound, and non‐Keynesian effects when the primary deficit is large.