Scoring rules and the inevitability of probability
Scoring rules and the inevitability of probability
复制标题
评分规则和概率的必然性
DOI：
10.21236/ada097045
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发表时间：
1982
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
David Lindley
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
David Lindley
Abstract : Let a person express his uncertainty about an event E, conditional upon an event F, by a number x and let him be given, as a result, a score which depends on x and the truth or falsity of E when F is true. It is shown that if the scores are additive for different events and if the person chooses admissible values only, then there exists a known transform of the values x to values which are probabilities. In particular, it follows that values x derived by significance tests, confidence intervals or by the rules of fuzzy logic are inadmissible. Only probability is a sensible description of uncertainty.
