Spatial Analysis of West Nile Virus: Rapid Risk Assessment of an Introduced Vector-Borne Zoonosis
Spatial Analysis of West Nile Virus: Rapid Risk Assessment of an Introduced Vector-Borne Zoonosis
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DOI：
10.1089/15303660260613729
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发表时间：
2002-09-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Fish, Durland
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brownstein, John S.;Rosen, Hilary;Fish, Durland
通过使用遥感和地理信息系统技术对1999年纽约市地区的初始病例分布进行空间分析，确定了西尼罗河病毒的人类风险分布。聚类分析显示存在统计学意义上的病例分组，这也表明可能的病毒传入地区。在集群内，栖息地适合潜在的感染性成年蚊子的植被覆盖量使用卫星图像来衡量。逻辑回归分析显示，卫星衍生的植被丰度与人类病例的存在存在显著正相关。逻辑模型被用来估计整个纽约市的西尼罗河病毒的人类风险的空间分布。使用病毒阳性蚊子采样点交叉验证了由此产生的风险图的准确性。这些新的流行病学方法有助于迅速查明进入点，并在空间上预测人类感染引入的病媒传播病原体的风险。
The distribution of human risk for West Nile virus was determined by spatial analysis of the initial case distribution for the New York City area in 1999 using remote sensing and geographic information system technologies. Cluster analysis revealed the presence of a statistically significant grouping of cases, which also indicates the area of probable virus introduction. Within the cluster, habitat suitability for potentially infective adult mosquitoes was measured by the amount of vegetation cover using satellite imagery. Logistic regression analysis revealed satellite-derived vegetation abundance to be significantly and positively associated with the presence of human cases. The logistic model was used to estimate the spatial distribution of human risk for West Nile virus throughout New York City. Accuracy of the resulting risk map was cross-validated using virus-positive mosquito sample sites. These new epidemiological methods aid in rapid entry point identification and spatial prediction of human risk of infection for introduced vector-borne pathogens.