The Poverty Impacts of Labor Heat Stress in West Africa Under a Warming Climate
The Poverty Impacts of Labor Heat Stress in West Africa Under a Warming Climate
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DOI：
10.1029/2022ef002777
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发表时间：
2022-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
W. Saeed;I. Haqiqi;Q. Kong;M. Huber;J. Buzan;S. Chonabayashi;K. Motohashi;T. Hertel
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文献类型：
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作者：
W. Saeed;I. Haqiqi;Q. Kong;M. Huber;J. Buzan;S. Chonabayashi;K. Motohashi;T. Hertel
本文基于全球一般均衡经济模型的模拟，评估了与热应激相关的劳动力能力损失对贫困的影响。与过去的研究相比，我们使用更精确的测量热应力，分配劳动能力损失的特定劳动类型的部门，并采用一个经济模型，其中包含高度分散的经济部门和地区。该模型使我们能够确定全球和区域经济影响，以解释国际依赖性。我们将注意力集中在七个西非国家，我们确定了接近贫困线的家庭的真实的收入的隐含变化。对于这些国家，我们使用家庭微观模拟来确定对贫困人口的潜在影响。在我们的研究结果中，贫困的影响在各国和以收入来源为基础的家庭阶层之间是异质的。这种异质性背后的一个关键渠道是劳动生产率的损失如何影响生产要素的相对回报。我们发现，非熟练的农业工资可能会增加，因为面对无弹性的食品需求，生产力的损失会导致劳动力需求增加，以抑制农业产出损失。在我们的实验中，即使忽略死亡率和发病率的潜在增加，贫困的增加幅度也从喀麦隆的2.3%到加纳和尼日利亚的7.2%-9.2%不等。在七个国家之一的几内亚，由于劳动力工资上涨的缓解作用，贫困状况几乎没有变化。
This paper assesses the poverty implications of heat stress‐related labor capacity losses based on simulations using a global general equilibrium economic model. Compared with past studies, we use a more precise measurement of heat stress, assign labor capacity losses to specific labor types by sector, and employ an economic model that contains highly disaggregated economic sectors and regions. This model allows us to determine global and regional economic impacts that account for international dependencies. We focus attention on seven West African countries for which we determine the implied changes in real incomes of households near the poverty line. For these countries, we use household microsimulations to determine potential impacts on the poverty headcount. In our results, poverty impacts are heterogeneous across countries and earning sources‐based household strata. A key channel behind this heterogeneity is how loss of labor productivity affects the relative returns to factors of production. We find that unskilled agricultural wages could increase, as loss of productivity in the face of inelastic food demand induces increased labor demand in order to dampen agricultural output losses. In our experiments, even neglecting potential increases in mortality and morbidity, poverty increases range from 2.3% in Cameroon to up to 7.2%–9.2% in Ghana and Nigeria. In one of the seven countries considered, Guinea, poverty sees little change due to the mitigating effects of rising labor wages.