Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades
Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-19-1001.1
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发表时间：
2020-08-15
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Nerem, R. Steven
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fasullo, John T.;Gent, Peter R.;Nerem, R. Steven
在高度计时代的动态海平面（DSL）的外部强迫响应（FR）的空间格局的出现最近已被证明使用气候模式，但我们的理解，其最初的出现，驱动程序和对未来的影响是穷人。在这里，DSL模式的人为强迫探索使用社区地球系统模型大包围（CESM-LE）和单强迫大包围，一组新的可用的模拟，其中个别强迫剂的值保持固定在1920年的水平，允许估计其影响。温室气体（GHG）和工业气溶胶（AER）对DSL FR的贡献在统计学上很大，其中世纪中期的AER以及20世纪末和21世纪世纪的GHG的贡献特别大。第二，但重要的，贡献被确定为生物质燃烧气溶胶在赤道大西洋在世纪中期，在南大洋平流层臭氧在世纪后期。理解区域DSL模式的关键是海洋热含量和盐度异常，这是由表面热量和淡水通量，海洋动力学和海水热膨胀率的空间结构驱动的。DSL在卫星时代的解释和验潮仪的较长记录的潜在影响，建议作为未来研究的一个课题。
The emergence of a spatial pattern in the externally forced response (FR) of dynamic sea level (DSL) during the altimeter era has recently been demonstrated using climate models but our understanding of its initial emergence, drivers, and implications for the future is poor. Here the anthropogenic forcings of the DSL pattern are explored using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and Single-Forcing Large Ensemble, a newly available set of simulations where values of individual forcing agents remain fixed at 1920 levels, allowing for an estimation of their effects. Statistically significant contributions to the DSL FR are identified for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and industrial aerosols (AERs), with particularly strong contributions resulting from AERs in the mid-twentieth century and GHGs in the late twentieth and twenty-first century. Secondary, but important, contributions are identified for biomass burning aerosols in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in the mid-twentieth century, and for stratospheric ozone in the Southern Ocean during the late twentieth century. Key to understanding regional DSL patterns are ocean heat content and salinity anomalies, which are driven by surface heat and freshwater fluxes, ocean dynamics, and the spatial structure of seawater thermal expansivity. Potential implications for the interpretation of DSL during the satellite era and the longer records from tide gauges are suggested as a topic for future research.