Multi-Period Evacuation Shelter Selection considering Dynamic Hazards Assessment
Multi-Period Evacuation Shelter Selection considering Dynamic Hazards Assessment
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DOI：
10.35806/ijoced.v1i2.60
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发表时间：
2019-09
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Maghfiroh;S. Hanaoka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Maghfiroh;S. Hanaoka
自然现象可能导致巨大的灾难，它受到触发现象和随后发生的后续现象的影响。然而，根据单一的灾害情景来制定灾害应急计划可能会导致对风险的不可比估计。决策者可以降低风险，并执行有效的疏散，通过了解灾害易发区的基础上危险评估。本研究提出一个多阶段的避难所选择和搬迁，考虑可能造成的影响，由于级联效应和次生灾害。目的是尽量减少疏散过程中与运输和搬迁住所有关的费用。提出了一种简单而强大的模拟退火算法来求解该模型。本研究比较了基于两种方法（危害评估地图和基于半径的地图）的成本。结果表明，与基于半径的地图相比，基于风险地图的模型产生了更好的结果。灾害地图可以提供在第一阶段确定的避难所的不同子集供选择，从而产生最少数量的疏散人员。
Natural phenomena may lead to a huge disaster that is affected by triggering phenomenon and the following phenomena that occured afterward. Nevertheless, following single scenario of disaster to create a disaster emergency plan might lead to an incomparable estimation of risk. The decision maker could reduce the risk and perform an efficient evacuation, By understanding disaster prone area based on hazard assessment. This study proposed a multi-period shelter selection and relocation by considering possible impact due to cascading effect and secondary disaster. The objective was to minimize the cost associated with transport and relocation shelter during the evacuation process. A simple yet powerful Simulated Annealing was proposed to solve the model. This study compared the cost that occurred based on two approaches, hazard assessment map, and radius based map. The result showed that model with hazard map generated a better result in comparison with radius based map. Hazard map could offer different subsets of the shelters identified in the first stage to be selected, thereby producing a minimum number of evacuees.