Resurgent Remain and a Rebooted Revolt on the Right: Exploring the 2019 European Parliament Elections in the United Kingdom
Resurgent Remain and a Rebooted Revolt on the Right: Exploring the 2019 European Parliament Elections in the United Kingdom
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DOI：
10.1111/1467-923x.12736
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发表时间：
2019-08-09
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Milazzo, Caitlin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cutts, David;Goodwin, Matthew;Milazzo, Caitlin
2019年欧洲议会选举是在英国脱欧公投和议会未能就脱欧协议达成一致的背景下举行的。奈杰尔·法拉奇（Nigel Farage）的新英国脱欧党（Brexit Party）在民意调查中名列前茅，支持留欧的自由民主党（Liberal Democrats）呼吁就是否留在欧盟进行第二次公投，从选举中不知名的位置重新获得第二名，而其他支持留欧的政党也表现良好。与之形成鲜明对比的是，两大主要政党——工党和保守党——创下了自成为英国两党制主要代表以来的最低得票率。在本文中，我们利用汇总级数据来探索2019年英国欧洲议会选举中发生的事情。我们的证据表明，工党遭受了“夹击运动”，失去了主要是白人、“落后”工人阶级的心脏地带的支持，也失去了工党在2017年大选中民调强劲的年轻大都市地区的支持。在2016年公投中强烈支持脱欧的“落后”群体中，对新脱欧党的支持大幅增加，这表明民族民粹主义者利用了工党的困境。保守党在富裕、年龄较大的退休地区的支持率大幅下降，但这在很大程度上是以重新崛起的自由民主党（Liberal Democrats）为代价的，后者在留欧地区和保守党传统上的强势地区大幅上升，尽管在2010-2015年联合政府之前保守党在年轻选民中占据了很大优势的地区没有出现这种情况。最后，与2014年相比，总体投票率有所上升，但居住在脱欧地区的个人投票积极性较低。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，生活在留欧地区的人更倾向于表达对英国脱欧进程的不满，更倾向于支持就英国的欧盟成员国身份举行第二次公投的政党。
The 2019 European Parliament (EP) election took place against the backdrop of the vote for Brexit and the failure of Parliament to agree on a withdrawal agreement. Nigel Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll and the pro-Remain Liberal Democrats, which called for a second referendum on EU membership, returned from electoral obscurity to take second place, while other pro-Remain parties similarly performed well. In sharp contrast, the two main parties, Labour and the Conservatives, recorded their lowest combined vote share since they became the main representatives of the two-party system. In this article, we draw on aggregate-level data to explore what happened at the 2019 EP election in Great Britain. Our evidence suggests Labour suffered from a 'pincer movement', losing support in its mainly white, working class 'left behind' heartlands but also in younger cosmopolitan areas where Labour had polled strongly at the 2017 general election. Support for the new Brexit Party increased more significantly in 'left behind' communities, which had given strong support to Leave at the 2016 referendum, suggesting that national populists capitalised on Labour's woes. The Conservatives haemorrhaged support in affluent, older retirement areas but largely at the expense of the resurgent Liberal Democrats, with the latter surging in Remain areas and where the Conservatives are traditionally strong, though not in areas with younger electorates where the party made so much ground prior to the 2010-2015 coalition government. Lastly, turnout increased overall compared with 2014, but individuals living in Leave areas were less motivated to vote. Overall, our findings suggest that those living in Remain areas were more driven to express their discontent with the Brexit process and more inclined to support parties that offer a second referendum on Britain's EU membership.