Power sector asset stranding effects of climate policies
Power sector asset stranding effects of climate policies
复制标题
气候政策对电力行业资产搁浅的影响
DOI：
10.1080/15567249.2019.1618421
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Dolf Gielen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Saygin;Jasper Rigter;Ben Caldecott;Nicholas Wagner;Dolf Gielen
能源部门脱碳以将温度上升限制在远低于2°C的范围内，这将导致在其技术寿命结束之前搁浅的资产和股本置换。在本文中，基于简化的自下而上的分析，考虑到2015年至2050年G20国家化石燃料发电厂的资本存量周转率，对全球电力行业的搁浅资产进行了量化。基于可再生能源加速部署的电力行业转型将导致到2050年全球电力行业将有9270亿美元的资产搁浅。搁浅的煤炭资产将占搁浅资产总值的四分之三左右，仅中国就占总数的45%。将减缓气候变化的行动推迟到2030年，使搁浅的资产价值翻了一番。各国在决策时应考虑资产的年龄特征。及早采取行动和避免对新的碳密集型资产的投资，可以最大限度地减少搁浅资产的风险。
ABSTRACT Energy sector decarbonization to limit the temperature rise to well-below 2°C will result in stranded assets and capital stock replacement before its technical lifetime ends. In this paper, stranded assets in the global power sector are quantified based on a simplified bottom-up analysis that considers the capital stock turnover of fossil fuel-fired power plants in the G20 countries between 2015 and 2050. Power sector transformation starting now based on accelerated deployment of renewables results in US dollar (USD) 927 billion of global power sector stranded assets by 2050. Stranded coal assets would represent around three-quarters of total stranded assets value and China alone would represent 45% of the total. Delaying action to mitigate climate change until 2030 doubles stranded asset value. Countries should consider assets’ age profile characteristics in their decision making. Early action and avoidance of investments in new carbon-intensive assets can minimize stranded asset risks.