Assessment model of dam operation risk based on monitoring data
Assessment model of dam operation risk based on monitoring data
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DOI：
10.1007/s11431-007-6013-7
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发表时间：
2007-08
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Wu Zhongru;Su Huaizhi;Guo Haiqing
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wu Zhongru;Su Huaizhi;Guo Haiqing
虽然大坝产生了显著的社会效益和经济效益，但不安全的大坝对下游人民生命财产的威胁也是不可忽视的。本文以反映大坝安全状况的监测资料为基础，结合可靠性理论和现场监测资料，提出了风险度的概念，建立了评价风险度（率）的分析体系和模型。提出了基于贝叶斯方法的风险度分析方法。根据大坝的安全状况，提出了大坝运行风险的五级风险度体系及相应的风险度。应用本文提出的模型和方法对某河流上的四座梯级大坝的运行风险进行了分析，其结果被业主采用。
Although the dams produce remarkable social and economic benefits, the threat made by unsafe dams to the life and property of people who live in the lower river area is un-negligible. Based on the monitoring data which reflect the safety condition of dams, the risk degree concept is proposed and the analysis system and model for evaluating risk degree (rate) are established in this paper by combining the reliability theory and field monitoring data. The analysis method for risk degree is presented based on Bayesian approach. A five-grade risk degree system for dam operation risk and corresponding risk degree is put forward according to the safety condition of dams. The operation risks of four cascade dams on some river are analyzed by the model and approach presented here and the result is adopted by the owner.