A fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach for risk assessment: a case of Singapore's green projects
A fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach for risk assessment: a case of Singapore's green projects
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风险评估的模糊综合评价方法--以新加坡绿色项目为例
DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.11.042
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发表时间：
2016-03
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Xianbo Zhao;B. Hwang;Yan Gao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xianbo Zhao;B. Hwang;Yan Gao
近年来，绿色建筑引起了学术界和工业界的广泛关注。由于绿色建筑项目不可避免地受到风险的困扰，本研究试图对新加坡的绿色建筑项目进行风险评估。该研究将28个风险因素分为11组，并进行了问卷调查，收到了新加坡项目经理的31份回复。采用模糊综合评价方法建立了风险评价模型。使用所提出的模型，发生的可能性，影响的大小和风险的关键性，每一个风险因素，组和整体风险进行了计算。“费用估计不准确”是最主要的风险因素，“费用超支风险”是最关键的风险组。总体风险临界度较高，表明新加坡的绿色施工仍需进行风险管理。该风险评估模型对绿色建筑行业的专业人员具有可靠性和实用性，可应用于其他国家的风险评估。鉴于目前对绿色项目风险的研究较少，本文对相关知识和文献进行了拓展。
In recent years, green building has attracted wide attention from both academia and industry. As green building projects are inevitably plagued with risks, this study attempted to assess the risks in green building projects in Singapore. Categorizing a list of 28 risk factors into 11 groups, the study performed a questionnaire survey and received 31 responses from project managers in Singapore. A risk assessment model was developed using the fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach. Using the proposed model, the likelihood of occurrence, magnitude of impact and risk criticality of each risk factor, group and the overall risk were calculated. “Inaccurate cost estimation” was the top risk factor, and “cost overrun risk” was the most critical risk group. The overall risk criticality was high, implying risk management was still necessary for green construction in Singapore. The proposed risk assessment model is reliable and practical for professionals in the green building industry, and can be applied in risk assessment in other countries. As few studies focused on risks in green projects, this study expands the knowledge and literature.