Explaining Business Cycles in Small Open Economies: How Much Do World Prices Matter?
Explaining Business Cycles in Small Open Economies: How Much Do World Prices Matter?
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解释小型开放经济体的商业周期：世界价格有多重要？
DOI：
10.1016/s0022-1996(01)00120-9
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发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
M. Kose
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Kose
本文分析了世界价格冲击--资本、中间产品和初级产品价格以及世界真实的利率的波动--在小型开放发展中国家商业周期的产生和传播中的作用。构建了一个随机动态多部门小型开放经济模型。该模型是具体因素模型的一个变体，反映了发展中经济体的主要结构特征。我利用方差分解方法来定量评估世界价格冲击的影响。结果表明，世界价格冲击占发展中国家商业周期波动的很大一部分。
This paper analyzes the role of world price shocks – fluctuations in the prices of capital, intermediate, and primary goods, and in the world real interest rate – in the generation and propagation of business cycles in small open developing countries. I construct a stochastic dynamic multi-sector small open economy model. The model is a variant of the specific-factors model and reflects the major structural characteristics of developing economies. I utilize variance decomposition methods to quantitatively evaluate the impact of world price shocks. The results indicate that world price shocks account for a significant fraction of business cycle variability in developing countries.