Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan
Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan
复制标题
南北苏丹局部变暖和暴力冲突
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. You
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Margherita Calderone;Jean;L. You
我们的文章侧重于对1997至2009年间苏丹北部和南部的像素级分析，从而促进了关于气候冲击和冲突的地方变化之间联系的新的微观层面的文献。温度异常被发现对冲突风险有很大影响，而在中值情景下，未来的风险预计将放大24%至31%。我们的分析还揭示了在一个以畜牧业为主要生计的地区，对自然资源，特别是水的竞争，这是这种关系的主要驱动力。
Our article contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflicts by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict, whereas the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 24–31% in the future under a median scenario. Our analysis also sheds light on the competition over natural resources, in particular water, as the main driver of such relationship in a region where pastoralism constitutes the dominant livelihood.