Atlantic forced component of the Indian monsoon interannual variability
Atlantic forced component of the Indian monsoon interannual variability
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2007gl033037
复制
发表时间：
2008-02-27
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Molteni, F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kucharski, F.;Bracco, A.;Molteni, F.
印度季风的年际变率受厄尔尼诺（n）在波浪形南方涛动（ENSO）的调制，在波浪形条件下，比正常季风季节更干燥的季风季节通常在厄尔尼诺（n）峰值之前，反之亦然，在波浪形相位上，La Ni（n）。然而，太平洋海面温度（SST）异常并不是唯一的因素。基于我们最近发现热带大西洋和印度盆地之间的大气遥相关导致了80年代和90年代ENSO-季风关系的减弱，我们研究了南赤道大西洋SST在强迫印度季风降雨（IMR）中的作用。使用两个观测数据集和两个合奏的模拟，我们表明，在IMR时间序列的观测和建模数据，通过减去ENSO强迫分量的IMR是线性相关的NINO 34指数，是显着相关的残差与南赤道大西洋SST。我们的研究结果对季节性预报工作具有重要意义。
The Indian monsoon interannual variability is modulated by the El Ni (n) over tildeo Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with a drier than normal monsoon season usually preceding peak El Ni (n) over tildeo conditions, and vice versa for La Ni (n) over tildea phase. Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, however, are not the only player. Building upon our recent discovery that atmospheric teleconnections between the tropical Atlantic and the Indian basin contributed to the weakening of the ENSO-monsoon anticorrelation during the '80s and '90s, we investigate the role of south equatorial Atlantic SSTs in forcing the Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR). Using two observational data sets and two ensembles of simulations we show that the residual in the IMR time series for observed and modeled data, obtained by subtracting the ENSO-forced component of the IMR that is linearly related to the NINO34 index, is significantly correlated with south equatorial Atlantic SSTs. Our results have important implications for seasonal forecast efforts.