Absolute Humidity and Pandemic Versus Epidemic Influenza
Absolute Humidity and Pandemic Versus Epidemic Influenza
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DOI：
10.1093/aje/kwq347
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发表时间：
2011-01-15
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Lipsitch, Marc
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shaman, Jeffrey;Goldstein, Edward;Lipsitch, Marc
实验和流行病学证据表明，绝对湿度的变化可以解释温带地区流行性流感的发病和季节性循环。绝对湿度在大流行性流感（如2009年甲型H1N1流感）传播中的作用尚未得到证实，事实上，在更潮湿的春季、夏季和秋季爆发的大流行性流感似乎构成了反对湿度影响的证据。然而，在这里，作者表明，由绝对湿度的季节性变化引起的流感基本和有效繁殖数的变化，与2009年温带地区观察到的A/H1N1流感大流行爆发的一般时间以及流行性流感的冬季传播一致。事实上，绝对湿度条件正确地确定了美国易受第三波冬季大流行性流感影响的地区。这些研究结果表明，大流行性流感爆发的时间是由绝对湿度条件，易感性水平，以及人口混合和接触率的变化相结合的控制。
Experimental and epidemiologic evidence indicates that variations of absolute humidity account for the onset and seasonal cycle of epidemic influenza in temperate regions. A role for absolute humidity in the transmission of pandemic influenza, such as 2009 A/H1N1, has yet to be demonstrated and, indeed, outbreaks of pandemic influenza during more humid spring, summer, and autumn months might appear to constitute evidence against an effect of humidity. However, here the authors show that variations of the basic and effective reproductive numbers for influenza, caused by seasonal changes in absolute humidity, are consistent with the general timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks observed for 2009 A/H1N1 in temperate regions, as well as wintertime transmission of epidemic influenza. Indeed, absolute humidity conditions correctly identify the region of the United States vulnerable to a third, wintertime wave of pandemic influenza. These findings suggest that the timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks is controlled by a combination of absolute humidity conditions, levels of susceptibility, and changes in population-mixing and contact rates.