Forecasting the primary energy demand in Turkey and analysis of cyclic patterns
Forecasting the primary energy demand in Turkey and analysis of cyclic patterns
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土耳其一次能源需求预测和循环模式分析
DOI：
10.1016/s0196-8904(01)00033-4
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
H. Tatlıdil
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
V. Ediger;H. Tatlıdil
自1984年以来，土耳其正式使用现代统计方法规划和估计未来能源需求。然而，由于这里讨论的几个原因，几乎所有以前的预测都大大高于实际观测。周期分析，这是一种半统计技术，利用任何周期性的历史数据，每年额外的能源需求量，似乎比其他技术预测土耳其的能源需求更好的结果。这一方法表明，2010年能源需求将在1.3亿吨石油当量左右。这一数字非常接近温特指数平滑法得出的估计值。为提高该方法的科学有效性，建议在其他类似国家推广应用。
The planning and estimation of future energy demand via modern statistical methods have been officially used in Turkey since 1984. However, almost all previous forecasts proved significantly higher than actual observations because of several reasons discussed here. The cycle analysis, which is a semi-statistical technique that makes use of any cyclicity in the historical data of annual additional amounts of energy demand, appears to give better results than the other techniques for forecasting energy demand in Turkey. This method suggests that the energy demand will be around 130 million toe in 2010. This figure is very close to the estimates obtained by the Winter's exponential smoothing method. To increase the scientific validity of the method, it should be applied in other similar countries.