Incorporating individual health-protective decisions into disease transmission models: a mathematical framework
Incorporating individual health-protective decisions into disease transmission models: a mathematical framework
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2011.0325
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发表时间：
2012-03-07
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Casman, Elizabeth A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Durham, David P.;Casman, Elizabeth A.
预计下一代计算流行病模型将模拟传染病传播和人类行为的动态变化。模拟中的个体代理不仅会相互感染，而且还具有态势感知和决策算法，使他们能够修改自己的行为。本文开发了这样一个模型的行为反应，提出了一个著名的心理模型的个人决策的数学解释，健康信念模型，适合纳入一个代理为基础的疾病传播模型。我们正式的健康信念模型，并展示其应用在建模的流行率的口罩使用观察到的过程中的2003年香港SARS疫情，一个有据可查的例子，在应对疾病爆发的行为变化。
It is anticipated that the next generation of computational epidemic models will simulate both infectious disease transmission and dynamic human behaviour change. Individual agents within a simulation will not only infect one another, but will also have situational awareness and a decision algorithm that enables them to modify their behaviour. This paper develops such a model of behavioural response, presenting a mathematical interpretation of a well-known psychological model of individual decision making, the health belief model, suitable for incorporation within an agent-based disease-transmission model. We formalize the health belief model and demonstrate its application in modelling the prevalence of facemask use observed over the course of the 2003 Hong Kong SARS epidemic, a well-documented example of behaviour change in response to a disease outbreak.