Sea-level rise can reverse the conditions that promote the spread of ecosystem engineers
Sea-level rise can reverse the conditions that promote the spread of ecosystem engineers
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DOI：
10.1007/s12080-022-00548-8
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发表时间：
2022-12
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
R. Decker;A. Hastings
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Decker;A. Hastings
气候变化及其后果，如海平面上升，将改变环境梯度，改变植物种群的空间分布和持久性。然而，生态系统工程师也可以改变环境梯度。为了量化气候变化和生态系统工程对人口扩散率的潜在相互作用，我们开发了一个空间模型，明确侧重于沿海植被生长和沼泽海拔的环境梯度之间的反馈。我们使用该模型来确定海平面上升如何改变生态系统工程如何影响沼泽种群的传播速度。该模型表明，低水平的生态系统工程可以产生最高的人口扩散率，在没有海平面上升的情况下，在最初的低海拔沼泽。然而，在海平面上升的情况下，较高的生态系统工程率和最初较高的海拔沼泽会产生最高的人口扩散率。因此，海平面上升可以逆转驱动高空间传播率的条件：在海平面上升之前空间传播率低的工程师可能会随着海平面上升而传播得更快。这一结果表明，海平面上升可能会促进入侵生态系统工程师的传播，而这些工程师以前的空间传播率很低。此外，生态系统工程可以作为一种机制，适应气候驱动的环境梯度变化。生态系统工程有可能拯救本地和外来植物种群的气候驱动的栖息地适宜性下降。
Climate change and its consequences such as sea-level rise will modify environmental gradients, altering the spatial spread and persistence of plant populations. However, ecosystem engineers can also modify environmental gradients. To quantify the potential interactive effects of climate change and ecosystem engineering on population spread rates, we develop a spatial model that explicitly focuses on feedbacks between coastal vegetation growth and the environmental gradient of marsh elevation. We use the model to determine how sea-level rise could change how ecosystem engineering affects the spread rate of marsh populations. The model demonstrates that low levels of ecosystem engineering can produce the highest population spread rates in the absence of sea-level rise in initially low-elevation marshes. However, higher rates of ecosystem engineering and initially higher elevation marshes produce the highest population spread rates in the presence of sea-level rise. Sea-level rise can therefore reverse the conditions that drive high rates of spatial spread: engineers with low rates of spatial spread prior to sea-level rise may spread faster as sea levels rise. This result suggests that sea-level rise may promote the spread of invasive ecosystem engineers that previously experienced low rates of spatial spread. Moreover, ecosystem engineering can serve as a mechanism for adaptation to climate-driven changes in environmental gradients. Ecosystem engineering has the potential to rescue both native and exotic plant populations from climate-driven decreases in habitat suitability.