Design of Intergreen Times Based on Safety Reliability
Design of Intergreen Times Based on Safety Reliability
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DOI：
10.3141/2259-20
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Keshuang Tang;M. Kuwahara;Shinji Tanaka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keshuang Tang;M. Kuwahara;Shinji Tanaka
提出了一种基于安全可靠性的信号交叉口绿灯间隔时间设计的随机方法。与传统的确定性方法不同，该方法既考虑了绿灯间隔时间输入变量的不确定性，又考虑了黄灯开始时驾驶员决策的随机性。选择突然停车、闯红灯等危险行为的概率作为确定黄灯时间的安全可靠性指标，以发生清关失败的概率作为确定全红灯时间的指标。建立了估算安全可靠性和计算绿地间时间的理论模型，并利用蒙特卡罗模拟技术对模型进行了验证。与日本、美国、德国等国现有方法的比较表明，该方法较好地反映了交通和驾驶决策的概率特征，从而为绿地间时间的合理设计提供了依据。
This study proposes a stochastic approach for the design of intergreen times, that is, signal change and clearance intervals, at signalized intersections based on safety reliability. Unlike the conventional deterministic methods, the proposed method accounts for the uncertainty of input variables deriving intergreen times as well as driver decision randomness at the onset of yellow. The probability of risky behavior, including abrupt stop and red light running, was selected as the safety reliability measure for determining yellow time, and the probability of the occurrence of clearance failure was used as the measure for determining all-red time. A theoretical model of estimating safety reliability and deriving intergreen times was developed and was validated by the use of the Monte Carlo simulation technique. Comparisons with the current methods used in Japan, the United States, and Germany indicated that the proposed method captured the probabilistic nature of traffic and driving decision and thus provided a more rational design of intergreen times.