Spatial dynamic patterns of hand-foot-mouth disease in the People's Republic of China
Spatial dynamic patterns of hand-foot-mouth disease in the People's Republic of China
复制标题
中华人民共和国手足口病的空间动态格局
DOI：
10.4081/gh.2013.95
复制
发表时间：
2013-05-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Yang, Wei-Zhong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang, Jin-Feng;Xu, Cheng-Dong;Yang, Wei-Zhong
手足口病（HFMD）是中华人民共和国最常见、传播范围最广的传染病。尽管近年来国内许多地区手足口病大幅增加，但其空间动态和决定因素仍不清楚。我们对2008年5月1日至2009年3月27日期间1456个县的手足口病病例及相应气象因素进行每周数据收集和分析发现，手足口病在夏季和冬季在全国范围内呈空间分散性，而在春季和秋季则呈聚集性。研究发现手足口病的空间变化受到气候变量组合的影响，而其时空传播主要由温度变化驱动，有7周的滞后性，这意味着(i)可以根据温度和其他气候变量的变化来预测疾病的传播； (ii) 仅使用温度数据就可以提前 7 周稳健地预测手足口病的空间动态。报告的调查结果有助于及时准备和实施适当的公共卫生干预措施，以控制和预防疾病爆发。
Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is the most common and widespread infectious disease in the People's Republic of China. Although there has been a substantial increase of HFMD in many parts of the country in recent years, its spatial dynamics and determinants remain unclear. When we collected and analysed weekly data on HFMD cases from 1,456 counties and the corresponding meteorological factors from 1 May 2008 to 27 March 2009, it was found that HFMD was spatially dispersed across the country in the summer and winter, while clustered in the spring and autumn. The spatial variation of HFMD was found to be affected by a combination of climate variables, while its spatio-temporal transmission was largely driven by temperature variations with a 7-week lag implying that (i) the dispersal of the disease can be anticipated based on the variation of the temperature and other climate variables; and (ii) the spatial dynamics of HFMD can be robustly predicted 7 weeks ahead of time using temperature data only. The findings reported allow prompt preparation and implementation of appropriate public health interventions to control and prevent disease outbreaks.