Projecting Stand Survival and Basal Area Based on a Self-Thinning Model for Chinese Fir Plantations
Projecting Stand Survival and Basal Area Based on a Self-Thinning Model for Chinese Fir Plantations
复制标题
基于自间伐模型的杉木人工林林分存活率和断面积预测
DOI：
10.1093/forsci/fxz086
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发表时间：
2020-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Zhang Jianguo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang Xiongqing;Cao Quang V;Wang Hanchen;Duan Aiguo;Zhang Jianguo
自疏规律在控制林分蓄积量和模拟林分发育过程中起着重要作用。杉木（Cunninghamia lanceolata）是我国南方地区广泛种植的一种乡土速生用材树种。对这一重要树种的有效管理需要对林分生长和存活进行准确合理的预测。利用分布在福建、江西、广西和四川4省的48块样地的重测数据，建立了基于自疏轨迹的林分存活率和断面积预测模型。根据Reineke（1933）的建议（方法1），使用-1.605的自疏斜率构建这些轨迹，并根据两组站点（方法2）或气候变量（方法3）估算斜率。结果表明，采用方法3建立的林分生长和存活模型效果最好，其次是方法2和方法1。此外，与方法1相比，方法3预测的林分生长和存活曲线在形状上与观测值更相似。总体而言，模型的基础上的自疏线使用气候敏感的斜坡提供了合理的预测林分的发展动态。因此，这些结果有助于模拟林分生长/生存和自疏在气候变化下的关系。
The self-thinning rule has played a critical role in controlling stand stocking and modeling stand development in forest stands. Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) is a native and fast-growing tree species used for timber production and is widely grown in southern China. Effective management of this important tree species requires accurate and reasonable predictions of stand growth and survival. Remeasured data from 48 plots distributed in Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Sichuan provinces were used to develop models to predict stand survival and basal area based on the self-thinning trajectories. These trajectories were constructed using a self-thinning slope of –1.605, as suggested by Reineke (1933) (Method 1), and the slopes estimated either from two groups of sites (Method 2) or from climate variables (Method 3). Results indicated that the stand growth and survival models using Method 3 performed best, followed by Method 2 and Method 1. In addition, stand growth and survival curves predicted from Method 3 were more similar in shape to those from the observed values, as compared with Method 1. Overall, the models based on the self-thinning lines using climate-sensitive slopes provided reasonable predictions of the stand development dynamics. Therefore, these results facilitate modeling of the relation between stand growth/survival and self-thinning under climate change.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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