The clinician's illusion.
The clinician's illusion.
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DOI：
10.1001/archpsyc.1984.01790230064010
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发表时间：
1984-12
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Cohen;Jacob Cohen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Cohen;Jacob Cohen
有几种疾病，包括精神分裂症、酒精中毒和阿片类药物成瘾，其长期预后在临床医生和研究人员之间以及研究人员之间存在分歧。这种分歧的部分原因可能是他们所取样人群的不同。临床医生对目前患有该疾病的人口进行抽样（“患病率”或普查样本），而研究样本往往更接近于代表曾经感染该疾病的人口（“发病率”样本）。临床医生的样本偏向于持续时间长的病例，因为一个病例出现在流行样本中的概率与它的持续时间成正比，因此是“临床医生的错觉”。这种偏差的统计机制被说明，其后果的细节。简要描述了临床和研究样本中抽样偏倚的其他来源，并提出了部分补救措施。
There are several diseases, including schizophrenia, alcoholism, and opiate addiction, for which the long-term prognosis is subject to disagreement between clinicians and researchers and also among researchers. Part of this disagreement may be attributable to a difference in the populations they sample. The clinician samples the population currently suffering from the disease (a "prevalence" or census sample), while research samples tend to more nearly represent the population ever contracting the disease (an "incidence" sample). The clinician's sample is biased toward cases of long duration, since the probability that a case will appear in a prevalence sample is proportional to its duration, hence "the clinician's illusion." The statistical mechanism of this bias is illustrated and its consequences detailed. Other sources of sampling bias in clinical and research samples are briefly described and partial remedies are suggested.