SIMPLE MODEL OF ASYMMETRICAL BUSINESS CYCLES: INTERACTIVE DYNAMICS OF A LARGE NUMBER OF AGENTS WITH DISCRETE CHOICES
SIMPLE MODEL OF ASYMMETRICAL BUSINESS CYCLES: INTERACTIVE DYNAMICS OF A LARGE NUMBER OF AGENTS WITH DISCRETE CHOICES
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不对称商业周期的简单模型：大量具有离散选择的代理的交互动态
DOI：
10.1017/s1365100598009018
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发表时间：
1998
影响因子：
0.9
通讯作者：
M. Aoki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Aoki
(跳跃)马尔可夫过程(广义生灭过程)被用来建模为数众多的受场类型外部性影响的主体之间的相互作用。转换率是代理人群体组成的(非线性)函数，根据他们所做的选择进行分类。模型状态随机地从一个均衡状态移动到另一个均衡状态，并表现出不对称的振荡(商业周期)。结果表明，该过程可以存在若干个局部稳定的平衡点，这取决于与备选选择结果相关的不确定性程度。在任何一对这样的吸引盆地之间有一个正的转换概率，当计算不同的盆地对时，平衡之间的平均第一次通过时间可能不同。
A (jump) Markov process (generalized birth-and-death process) is used to model interactions of a large number of agents subject to field-type externalities. Transition rates are (nonlinear) functions of the composition of the population of agents classified by the choices they make. The model state randomly moves from one equilibrium to another, and exhibits asymmetrical oscillations (business cycles). It is shown that the processes can have several locally stable equilibria, depending on the degree of uncertainty associated with consequences of alternative choices. There is a positive probability of transition between any pair of such basins of attraction, and mean first-passage times between equilibria can be different when different pairs of basins are calculated.