Do sudden stratospheric warmings boost convective activity in the tropics?
Do sudden stratospheric warmings boost convective activity in the tropics?
复制标题
平流层突然变暖是否会促进热带地区的对流活动？
DOI：
10.1029/2021gl093688
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yoshida;K.;and Mizuta;R.
研究了平流层突然变暖(SSW)对热带对流层的影响，利用5000年尺度集合模拟和60公里全球大气模式探测来自大的对流自然变率的信号。热带地区平流层温度和静力稳定性降低，对流活动与热带上升流同步达到峰值。与12-3月气候学相比，热带气旋强度和累积气旋能量(ACE)分别有5%和9%的微弱但统计上的强劲增长。然而，最大的10%的ACE异常的相对概率增加了约30%。向热带对流层的温带波可以改变对流活动，但在SSW过程中不表现出很强的系统变化，如果样本量足够大，则与对流活动没有明显的联系。
The impact of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) on the tropical troposphere is investigated using 5000‐years scale ensemble simulations with a 60‐km global atmospheric model to detect signals from large natural variability of convection. Stratospheric temperature and static stability decrease in the tropics, and convective activity peaks simultaneously with the tropical upwelling. Tropical cyclone intensity and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) show a weak but statistically robust enhancement of 5% and 9%, respectively, relative to the December–March climatology. However, the relative probability of the largest 10% of ACE anomalies increases by about 30%. Extratropical waves toward the tropical troposphere, which can alter convective activity, do not show a strong systematic variation during SSWs, and no significant association with convective activity is found if the sample size is large enough.