Evidence for sharp increase in the economic damages of extreme natural disasters
Evidence for sharp increase in the economic damages of extreme natural disasters
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1907826116
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发表时间：
2019-10-22
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Roventini, Andrea
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Coronese, Matteo;Lamperti, Francesco;Roventini, Andrea
气候变化增加了自然灾害的频率和强度。这是否会导致经济损失增加？迄今为止，对损害趋势的经验性评估尚无定论。我们的研究表明，在控制了一些因素后，极端损害的时间增加。我们使用分位数回归来分析事件级数据，以捕获损害分布（而不仅仅是其平均值）的模式，并发现随着时间的推移，渐进的扭曲和尾部变肥的强有力证据。虽然时间对平均值的影响很难检测，但对极端损害的影响很大，具有统计学意义，并且随着损失的增加而增加。我们的研究结果是一致的向上弯曲，凸的损害函数，这是通常假设在气候经济学模型。它们对控制变量和所考虑的时间范围的不同规格也是稳健的，并表明极端损害的风险在温带地区比在热带地区增加得更多。我们使用模拟来表明，数据中的漏报偏差不会削弱我们的推断;事实上，它可能会使他们过于保守。
Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Does this translate into increased economic damages? To date, empirical assessments of damage trends have been inconclusive. Our study demonstrates a temporal increase in extreme damages, after controlling for a number of factors. We analyze event-level data using quantile regressions to capture patterns in the damage distribution (not just its mean) and find strong evidence of progressive rightward skewing and tail-fattening over time. While the effect of time on averages is hard to detect, effects on extreme damages are large, statistically significant, and growing with increasing percentiles. Our results are consistent with an upwardly curved, convex damage function, which is commonly assumed in climate-economics models. They are also robust to different specifications of control variables and time range considered and indicate that the risk of extreme damages has increased more in temperate areas than in tropical ones. We use simulations to show that underreporting bias in the data does not weaken our inferences; in fact, it may make them overly conservative.