THE STEVENS FLOOD ADVISORY SYSTEM: OPERATIONAL H3E FLOOD FORECASTS FOR THE GREATER NEW YORK / NEW JERSEY METROPOLITAN REGION
THE STEVENS FLOOD ADVISORY SYSTEM: OPERATIONAL H3E FLOOD FORECASTS FOR THE GREATER NEW YORK / NEW JERSEY METROPOLITAN REGION
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史蒂文斯洪水咨询系统：大纽约/新泽西都会区的 H3E 洪水预报
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
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通讯作者：
Y. Wang
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作者：
N. Georgas;A. Blumberg;T. Herrington;T. Wakeman;F. Saleh;D. Runnels;A. Jordi;K. Ying;Larry Yin;V. Ramaswamy;A. Yakubovskiy;O. Lopez;J. Mcnally;J. Schulte;Y. Wang
本文介绍了史蒂文斯洪水预警系统（SFAS, http://stevens.edu/SFAS）的自动化、网站界面和验证。全自动的、基于集合的洪水预警系统动态地整合实时观测和河流及沿海洪水模型，这些模型由不同尺度的气象模型集合驱动，以产生和服务城市地形的街道尺度洪水预报。SFAS适用于大纽约/新泽西大都会地区，并被美国国家气象局（NWS）内的多个预报办公室和部门、地区和市政应急管理办公室以及公众常规使用。每六个小时，底层的h3e（水文-水力-水动力集合）建模框架，准备，运行，数据同化，并整合375个动态模型模拟的结果，以产生具有81小时预测范围的高地和沿海（风暴潮）洪水条件的可操作的概率集合预测。h3e模式的气象强迫是由125个天气模式集合成员以及主要气象机构（NCEP， ECMWF， CMC）和学术界的确定性天气模式提供的。自2015年底以来，最先进的SFAS取代了著名的、但具有确定性的风暴潮预警系统（SSWS），该系统在飓风艾琳和桑迪以及最近的温带气旋乔纳斯期间得到了突出表现。
This paper presents the automation, website interface, and verification of the Stevens Flood Advisory System (SFAS, http://stevens.edu/SFAS). The fully-automated, ensemble-based flood advisory sys- tem dynamically integrates real-time observations and river and coastal flood models forced by an ensemble of meteorological models at various scales to produce and serve street scale flood forecasts over urban terrain. SFAS is applied to the Greater NY/NJ Metropolitan region, and is used routinely by multiple forecast offices and departments within the US National Weather Service (NWS), regional and municipal Offices of Emergency Management, as well as the general public. Every six hours, the underlying H 3 E (Hydrologic–Hydraulic–Hydrodynamic Ensemble) modelling framework, prepares, runs, data-assimilates, and integrates results from 375 dynamic model simulations to produce actionable, probabilistic ensemble forecasts of upland and coastal (storm surge) flooding conditions with an 81-h forecast horizon. Meteorological forcing to the H 3 E models is provided by 125 weather model ensemble members as well as deterministic weather models from major weather agencies (NCEP, ECMWF, CMC) and academia. The state-of-the-art SFAS, a replacement of the well-known, but deterministic, Storm Surge Warning System (SSWS) that was highlighted during Hurricanes Irene and Sandy and more recently extratropical cyclone Jonas, has been operational since the end of 2015.