Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods
Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods
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DOI：
10.1198/016214502760301264
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发表时间：
2001-04
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Uwe Jensen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Uwe Jensen
概率风险分析的目的是量化高科技设施所带来的风险。越来越多地，这种分析被应用到更广泛的一类系统，其中的问题，如缺乏数据，系统的复杂性，后果的不确定性，使经典的统计分析困难或不可能。作者讨论了不确定性的基本概念，它与概率的关系，以及不确定性量化的限制。作者在风险分析的理论和应用方面积累了丰富的经验，侧重于风险量化、解释和管理的概念和数学基础。它们涵盖标准主题以及重要的新主题，如使用专家判断和不确定性传播。风险分析与决策的关系在影响图和决策理论的章节中得到了强调。最后，选择量化风险的指标的困难，和目前的监管框架进行了讨论。
Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations. Increasingly, such analyses are being applied to a wider class of systems in which problems such as lack of data, complexity of the systems, uncertainty about consequences, make a classical statistical analysis difficult or impossible. The authors discuss the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgement and uncertainty propagation. The relationship of risk analysis with decision making is highlighted in chapters on influence diagrams and decision theory. Finally, the difficulties of choosing metrics to quantify risk, and current regulatory frameworks are discussed.