Response of simulated burned area to historical changes in environmental and anthropogenic factors: a comparison of seven fire models
Response of simulated burned area to historical changes in environmental and anthropogenic factors: a comparison of seven fire models
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DOI：
10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019
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发表时间：
2019-10
期刊：
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Lina Teckentrup;S. Harrison;S. Hantson;A. Heil;J. Melton;M. Forrest;Fang Li;C. Yue;A. Arneth;T. Hickler;S. Sitch;G. Lasslop
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文献类型：
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作者：
Lina Teckentrup;S. Harrison;S. Hantson;A. Heil;J. Melton;M. Forrest;Fang Li;C. Yue;A. Arneth;T. Hickler;S. Sitch;G. Lasslop
抽象的。了解火灾状况如何随着时间的推移而变化，对于了解其对地球系统（包括社会）的未来影响至关重要。火灾模型之间的模拟烧毁面积的巨大差异表明，有很大的不确定性与模拟全球变化对火灾制度的影响。我们在这里绘制的敏感性模拟的七个全球动态植被模型参与火模型相互比较项目（FireMIP），以了解模型的差异转化为火制度预测的差异。敏感性实验隔离的影响，个别司机对模拟烧伤面积，这是规定在模拟。具体而言，这些驱动因素是大气中的二氧化碳浓度、人口密度、土地使用变化、闪电和气候。这七个模型捕捉了火烧区的空间格局。然而，自1921年以来，它们在烧毁面积趋势方面表现出相当大的差异。我们分析了敏感性和参考模拟之间的差异轨迹，以提高我们对推动烧伤面积全球趋势的理解。在可能的情况下，我们将模型间差异与模型假设联系起来。总体而言，这些分析表明，在模拟全球历史烧毁面积的最大的不确定性有关的人为点火和抑制和土地利用对植被和火灾的影响的代表性。与以前的研究一致，这突出了需要提高我们对人类活动与火灾之间关系的理解和模型表示，以提高我们在地球系统模型应用中模拟火灾的能力。只有两个模型对大气CO2浓度有很强的响应。大气CO2浓度变化对火灾的影响是复杂的，并且缺少燃料负荷和可燃性如何因该因素而变化的定量信息。全球范围内对闪电的反应很低。火烧迹地对气候的响应具有空间异质性，年际变化明显。因此，气候可能比其他因素更重要的短期变化和极端的烧伤面积。这项研究提供了一个基础，以了解全球火灾模拟的不确定性。过程理解和观测限制的改进减少了模拟燃烧区趋势的不确定性。
Abstract. Understanding how fire regimes change over time is of major importance for understanding their future impact on the Earth system, including society. Large differences in simulated burned area between fire models show that there is substantial uncertainty associated with modelling global change impacts on fire regimes. We draw here on sensitivity simulations made by seven global dynamic vegetation models participating in the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to understand how differences in models translate into differences in fire regime projections. The sensitivity experiments isolate the impact of the individual drivers on simulated burned area, which are prescribed in the simulations. Specifically these drivers are atmospheric CO2 concentration, population density, land-use change, lightning and climate. The seven models capture spatial patterns in burned area. However, they show considerable differences in the burned area trends since 1921. We analyse the trajectories of differences between the sensitivity and reference simulation to improve our understanding of what drives the global trends in burned area. Where it is possible, we link the inter-model differences to model assumptions. Overall, these analyses reveal that the largest uncertainties in simulating global historical burned area are related to the representation of anthropogenic ignitions and suppression and effects of land use on vegetation and fire. In line with previous studies this highlights the need to improve our understanding and model representation of the relationship between human activities and fire to improve our abilities to model fire within Earth system model applications. Only two models show a strong response to atmospheric CO2 concentration. The effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration on fire are complex and quantitative information of how fuel loads and how flammability changes due to this factor is missing. The response to lightning on global scale is low. The response of burned area to climate is spatially heterogeneous and has a strong inter-annual variation. Climate is therefore likely more important than the other factors for short-term variations and extremes in burned area. This study provides a basis to understand the uncertainties in global fire modelling. Both improvements in process understanding and observational constraints reduce uncertainties in modelling burned area trends.