Using Information-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty
Using Information-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty
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DOI：
10.1007/s11269-012-0164-4
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发表时间：
2013-03
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
B. Korteling;S. Dessai;Z. Kapelan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Korteling;S. Dessai;Z. Kapelan
水资源管理人员必须根据气候变化对当地水文和未来社会经济变化对当地需求的影响的严重不确定信息，制定全面的水资源计划。在英格兰和威尔士，目前的水资源规划方法包括与水资源模拟建模分开的净空估计过程。这一过程量化的不确定性的基础上，只有一个点的假设范围的偏差，从预期的气候和预测的需求到未来25年。本文利用基于信息缺口决策理论的综合方法，定量评估各种供应侧和需求侧管理选项的鲁棒性在一个广泛的合理的未来。研究结果表明，超出了不确定性范围探索的净空方法，偏好逆转可能会发生，即一些管理选项，表现不佳，在较低的不确定性，在较高的不确定性水平。这项研究还表明，当50%或更多的人口采用需求侧管理时，与效率相关的措施和创新方案（如雨水收集）的表现与一些供应侧方案一样好或更好。多标准决策分析的额外使用将重点从水库扩建方案转移，这些方案在水可用性方面表现最好，联合战略包括雨水收集和灰水再利用的创新需求方管理行动，以及提高效率的措施和额外的区域转让。本文阐述了如何信息差距为基础的方法可以提供一个全面的图片潜在的供应/需求的未来和丰富的各种信息，以支持适应性管理的水系统在严重的不确定性。
Water resource managers are required to develop comprehensive water resources plans based on severely uncertain information of the effects of climate change on local hydrology and future socio-economic changes on localised demand. In England and Wales, current water resources planning methodologies include a headroom estimation process separate from water resource simulation modelling. This process quantifies uncertainty based on only one point of an assumed range of deviations from the expected climate and projected demand 25 years into the future. This paper utilises an integrated method based on Information-Gap decision theory to quantitatively assess the robustness of various supply side and demand side management options over a broad range of plausible futures. Findings show that beyond the uncertainty range explored with the headroom method, a preference reversal can occur, i.e. some management options that underperform at lower uncertainties, outperform at higher levels of uncertainty. This study also shows that when 50 % or more of the population adopts demand side management, efficiency related measures and innovative options such as rainwater collection can perform equally well or better than some supply side options The additional use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis shifts the focus away from reservoir expansion options, that perform best in regards to water availability, to combined strategies that include innovative demand side management actions of rainwater collection and greywater reuse as well efficiency measures and additional regional transfers. This paper illustrates how an Information-Gap based approach can offer a comprehensive picture of potential supply/demand futures and a rich variety of information to support adaptive management of water systems under severe uncertainty.