Real-time prediction system for migration of rice planthoppers Sogatella furcifera (Horvath) and Nilaparvata lugens (Stal) (Homoptera: Delphacidae)
Real-time prediction system for migration of rice planthoppers Sogatella furcifera (Horvath) and Nilaparvata lugens (Stal) (Homoptera: Delphacidae)
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DOI：
10.1303/aez.2005.221
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发表时间：
2005-05-01
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Chino, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Otuka, A;Watanabe, T;Chino, M
白背飞虱（Sogatellafurcifera）和褐飞虱（Nilaparvatalugens）是水稻害虫，在初夏雨季从中国南方迁徙到日本。为了实现高精度的偏移预测，开发了实时预测系统。在该系统中，最新的气象数据在线提供给先进的数值天气预报模型MM5。该模型以一小时的间隔预测三维大气场。在这些田地中，飞虱迁徙模拟模型 GEARN 可以计算大量模拟飞虱的运动，并以三小时为间隔预测它们的相对空气密度。结果将转换为地图并在互联网上提供。相对空气密度图提供了有关未来两天迁徙时间和区域的信息。在2003年6月和7月的主要迁徙季节，该系统的预测质量与日本气象厅的降雨预测相当。
The white-backed planthopper, Sogatella furcifera, and the brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens, are pests of rice and migrate from south China to Japan in the rainy season of early summer. In order to achieve high-precision migration prediction, a real-time prediction system was developed. In this system, the latest meteorological data are supplied online to an advanced numerical weather prediction model, MM5. The model forecasts three-dimensional atmospheric fields at one-hour intervals. In these fields, a planthopper migration simulation model, GEARN, calculates movement of a number of modeled planthoppers and predicts their relative aerial density at three-hour intervals. The results are converted to maps and become available on the Internet. The maps of relative aerial density provide information about the timing and area of migrations over the next two days. During the main migration season in June and July 2003, the system achieved a prediction quality that was comparable to that of rainfall forecasts by the Japanese Meteorological Agency.