Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges
Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2002.2134
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发表时间：
2002-10-22
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Huntley, B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hill, JK;Thomas, CD;Huntley, B
我们分析了51种英国蝴蝶的分布记录，以调查海拔和纬度对二十世纪世纪气候变暖的反应。北方和/或山地分布的物种已经从低海拔地区消失，并在高海拔地区定居的网站在世纪，符合气候的解释。我们没有发现任何证据表明所有物种都有系统地向北迁移，尽管46个南方分布的物种中有11个在其分布的北方部分扩大了。对于35个物种的子集，我们模拟了气候在限制当前欧洲分布中的作用，并预测了2070-2099年期间的潜在未来分布。大多数分布在北方的物种将几乎没有机会向北扩展，并将从南方地区消失，导致范围缩小。分布在南方的物种将有可能向北迁移，导致分布范围相似或增加。然而，由于缺乏合适的栖息地，35个研究物种中有30个未能跟踪最近的气候变化，因此我们相应地修改了我们对这些物种的估计，并预测北方和南方物种的范围大小分别下降65%和24%。这些修订后的估计可能是对未来蝴蝶范围大小的更现实的预测。
We analyse distribution records for 51 British butterfly species to investigate altitudinal and latitudinal responses to twentieth century climate warming. Species with northern and/or montane distributions have disappeared from low elevation sites and colonized sites at higher elevations during the twentieth century, consistent with a climate explanation. We found no evidence for a systematic shift northwards across all species, even though 11 out of 46 southerly distributed species have expanded in the northern part of their distributions. For a subset of 35 species, we model the role of climate in limiting current European distributions and predict potential future distributions for the period 2070-2099. Most northerly distributed species will have little opportunity to expand northwards and will disappear from areas in the south, resulting in reduced range sizes. Southerly distributed species will have the potential to shift northwards, resulting in similar or increased range sizes. However, 30 out of 35 study species have failed to track recent climate changes because of lack of suitable habitat, so we revised our estimates accordingly for these species and predicted 65% and 24% declines in range sizes for northern and southern species, respectively. These revised estimates are likely to be more realistic predictions of future butterfly range sizes.