Attribution of mortality to the urban heat island during heatwaves in the West Midlands, UK.
Attribution of mortality to the urban heat island during heatwaves in the West Midlands, UK.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12940-016-0100-9
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发表时间：
2016-03-08
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Cai XM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Heaviside C;Vardoulakis S;Cai XM
城市热岛效应（Urban Heat Island，简称UHI）是指城市通常比周围的农村地区更温暖的现象。传统上，温度监测点位于城市中心之外，这意味着点测量并不总是反映城市中心的真实空气温度，基于此类数据的健康影响估计可能低估了热量对公共健康的影响。气候变化可能会加剧未来的热浪，但由于气候预测通常不包括城市热岛效应，健康影响可能会被进一步低估。这些因素激发了一个二维分析的人口加权温度在整个城市地区，热相关的健康影响评估，因为人口通常居住在城市中心，环境温度最高，城市热岛最明显。我们调查的敏感性，健康影响估计使用人口加权和城市温度的暴露数据。我们量化的归因于热岛热相关的死亡率在西米德兰兹郡在2003年8月的热浪通过比较两个模型的温度模拟的基础上对健康的影响。第一个模拟是基于详细的城市土地利用信息和捕捉的程度的城市热岛，而在第二个模拟，城市土地表面已被农村类型所取代。结果表明，在2003年西米德兰兹郡的热浪中，城市热岛效应占与热有关的总死亡率的50%左右。我们还发现，采用地理平均值而不是人口加权平均值，将各地区的人口暴露于温度的估计值低估了约1 °C，大致相当于低估了20%的死亡率。我们比较了死亡率的贡献，热岛效应的影响，预计从一系列的预测温度的基础上UKCP 09气候预测。对于中等排放情景，2080年的典型热浪可能导致死亡率增加约3倍于2003年（278对90人死亡），其中包括人口变化，人口加权和西米德兰兹郡的UHI效应，并假设未来人口对热量的适应没有变化。本文的在线版本（doi：10.1186/s12940-016-0100-9）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect describes the phenomenon whereby cities are generally warmer than surrounding rural areas. Traditionally, temperature monitoring sites are placed outside of city centres, which means that point measurements do not always reflect the true air temperature of urban centres, and estimates of health impacts based on such data may under-estimate the impact of heat on public health. Climate change is likely to exacerbate heatwaves in future, but because climate projections do not usually include the UHI, health impacts may be further underestimated. These factors motivate a two-dimensional analysis of population weighted temperature across an urban area, for heat related health impact assessments, since populations are typically densest in urban centres, where ambient temperatures are highest and the UHI is most pronounced. We investigate the sensitivity of health impact estimates to the use of population weighting and the inclusion of urban temperatures in exposure data. We quantify the attribution of the UHI to heat related mortality in the West Midlands during the heatwave of August 2003 by comparing health impacts based on two modelled temperature simulations. The first simulation is based on detailed urban land use information and captures the extent of the UHI, whereas in the second simulation, urban land surfaces have been replaced by rural types. The results suggest that the UHI contributed around 50 % of the total heat-related mortality during the 2003 heatwave in the West Midlands. We also find that taking a geographical, rather than population-weighted, mean of temperature across the regions under-estimates the population exposure to temperatures by around 1 °C, roughly equivalent to a 20 % underestimation in mortality. We compare the mortality contribution of the UHI to impacts expected from a range of projected temperatures based on the UKCP09 Climate Projections. For a medium emissions scenario, a typical heatwave in 2080 could be responsible for an increase in mortality of around 3 times the rate in 2003 (278 vs. 90 deaths) when including changes in population, population weighting and the UHI effect in the West Midlands, and assuming no change in population adaptation to heat in future. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12940-016-0100-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.