Assessing storm surge impacts on coastal inundation due to climate change: case studies of Baltimore and Dorchester County in Maryland
Assessing storm surge impacts on coastal inundation due to climate change: case studies of Baltimore and Dorchester County in Maryland
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-020-04096-4
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发表时间：
2020-06
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Ming Li;Fan Zhang;S. Barnes;Xiaohong Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ming Li;Fan Zhang;S. Barnes;Xiaohong Wang
飓风伊莎贝尔（2003年）在切萨皮克湾周围引发了创纪录的洪水，并在马里兰州的农村东海岸和巴尔的摩等大城市造成了广泛的破坏。区域大气-海洋模式被用来调查风暴潮和沿海淹没，可能会产生类似的风暴在温暖的海洋温度和海平面预测未来的气候。暖化导致风暴增强，最低海平面气压从伊莎贝尔期间的955毫巴下降到2050年的约950毫巴，2100年的约940毫巴。更强的风暴和更高的平均海平面将2050年的峰值水位放大约0.5 m，2100年放大约1.2 m。切萨皮克湾的总淹没面积在2050年扩大26%，在2100年扩大47-62%。在多切斯特县的农村地区，淹没面积在未来的气候中显示出适度的扩张，但平均淹没深度在2050年增加30%，在2100年增加50-70%。在气候变化情景代表浓度路径（RCP）4.5/8.5下，被淹房屋数量从飓风伊莎贝尔期间的1420所增加到2100年的1850/2190所。在飓风伊莎贝尔期间，巴尔的摩的淹没面积为2.2 km 2，2050年扩大到5.1 km 2，2100年达到RCP 4.5/8.5下的8.1/9.1 km 2。根据RCP 4.5/8.5的中位数预测，估计巴尔的摩的洪水损失将从2003年的2900万美元增加到2050年的9800万美元/1亿美元和2100年的1.5亿美元/1.62亿美元。由于气候变化假设情景和气候模式预测不同，这些估计数具有不确定性。
Hurricane Isabel (2003) generated record flooding around Chesapeake Bay and caused extensive damage in rural Eastern Shore of Maryland and metropolitan cities like Baltimore. Regional atmosphere–ocean models are used to investigate the storm surge and coastal inundation that might be produced by a similar storm under the warmer ocean temperature and higher sea level projected for the future climate. Warming causes the storm to intensify, with the minimum sea level pressure decreasing from 955 mb during Isabel to ~ 950 mb in 2050 and ~ 940 mb in 2100. The stronger storm and higher mean sea level amplify the peak water level by ~ 0.5 m in 2050 and ~ 1.2 m in 2100. The total inundated area over Chesapeake Bay expands by 26% in 2050 and 47–62% in 2100. Over the rural Dorchester County, the inundated area shows moderate expansion in the future climate but the average inundation depth is 30% higher in 2050 and 50–70% higher in 2100. The number of houses flooded increases from 1420 during Hurricane Isabel to 1850/2190 in 2100 under the climate change scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5/8.5. The inundated area in Baltimore is 2.2 km2during Hurricane Isabel, expands to 5.1 km2in 2050, and reaches 8.1/9.1 km2in 2100 under RCP 4.5/8.5. The estimated flood damage to Baltimore increases from $29 million in 2003 to $98/100 million in 2050 and $150/162 million in 2100 under the median projection of RCP 4.5/8.5. These estimates are subjected to uncertainty due to different climate change scenarios and different climate model projections.