Estimates of Twenty-First-Century Flood Risk in the Pacific Northwest Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations
Estimates of Twenty-First-Century Flood Risk in the Pacific Northwest Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations
复制标题
基于区域气候模型模拟的太平洋西北部二十一世纪洪水风险估计
DOI：
10.1175/jhm-d-13-0137.1
复制
发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Richard C. Steed
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Salathe;A. Hamlet;C. Mass;Se‐Yeun Lee;Matt Stumbaugh;Richard C. Steed
区域气候模式模拟结果表明，太平洋西北许多河流流域在初秋的洪水风险（2040-69）大幅增加。确定了两个主要原因：1)更极端和更早的风暴；2)在区域地形上，气温升高使降水从雪为主转变为雨为主。模拟还显示，由于局部风暴特征，不同盆地之间存在很大的不确定性。虽然先前使用统计降尺度的研究表明，由于全球气候变化，太平洋西北地区的许多地区可能会经历洪水的大幅增加，但这些初步估计并不能充分代表强降水变化的影响。与应用于全球气候模式情景的统计降尺度技术不同，区域模式提供了对历史和未来极端风暴的季节性、大小、位置和强度的明确的、基于物理的模拟。
AbstractResults from a regional climate model simulation show substantial increases in future flood risk (2040–69) in many Pacific Northwest river basins in the early fall. Two primary causes are identified: 1) more extreme and earlier storms and 2) warming temperatures that shift precipitation from snow to rain dominance over regional terrain. The simulations also show a wide range of uncertainty among different basins stemming from localized storm characteristics. While previous research using statistical downscaling suggests that many areas in the Pacific Northwest are likely to experience substantial increases in flooding in response to global climate change, these initial estimates do not adequately represent the effects of changes in heavy precipitation. Unlike statistical downscaling techniques applied to global climate model scenarios, the regional model provides an explicit, physically based simulation of the seasonality, size, location, and intensity of historical and future extreme storms, incl...