Historical Arctic Logbooks Provide Insights into Past Diets and Climatic Responses of Cod.
Historical Arctic Logbooks Provide Insights into Past Diets and Climatic Responses of Cod.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0135418
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Pinnegar JK
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Townhill BL;Maxwell D;Engelhard GH;Simpson SD;Pinnegar JK
巴伦支海的大西洋鳕鱼（Gadus morhua）数量目前处于20世纪50年代以来从未见过的水平。上个世纪人口增长的原因，以及未来是否会保持如此庞大的数量，目前还不清楚。为了探索这一点，我们对巴伦支海的历史鳕鱼捕捞和饮食数据集进行了数字化和查询。17年的捕获数据和12年的猎物数据跨越1930年至1959年，覆盖了未开发的空间和时间范围，重要的是捕捉到了之前温暖期的结束，当时的温度与目前的温度相似。本研究旨在评估单位努力渔获量和捕获频率与空间、时间和环境变量的关系。在整个时间序列中，渔获量存在显著的时空异质性。最高的捕获量通常在20世纪30年代和40年代，尽管在一些地方在50年代后期记录了更多的鳕鱼。广义加性模型表明，环境、空间和时间变量都是鳕鱼捕获量的重要描述因子，在东经15 ~ 45°和北纬73 ~ 77°、海底温度2 ~ 4°C和深度150 ~ 250 m区域，鳕鱼捕获量最高。在研究期间，鳕鱼的饮食变化很大，不同猎物种类的相对频率变化频繁，特别是Mallotus villosus（毛鳞鱼）。环境变量特别善于描述毛发素和鲱鱼在饮食中的重要性。这些新的分析支持了关于该地区生态如何受气候变化控制的现有知识。当与最近的数据相结合时，这些历史关系对于预测巴伦支海渔业的未来以及了解环境和生态系统如何反应将是有价值的。
Gadus morhua (Atlantic cod) stocks in the Barents Sea are currently at levels not seen since the 1950s. Causes for the population increase last century, and understanding of whether such large numbers will be maintained in the future, are unclear. To explore this, we digitised and interrogated historical cod catch and diet datasets from the Barents Sea. Seventeen years of catch data and 12 years of prey data spanning 1930–1959 cover unexplored spatial and temporal ranges, and importantly capture the end of a previous warm period, when temperatures were similar to those currently being experienced. This study aimed to evaluate cod catch per unit effort and prey frequency in relation to spatial, temporal and environmental variables. There was substantial spatio-temporal heterogeneity in catches through the time series. The highest catches were generally in the 1930s and 1940s, although at some localities more cod were recorded late in the 1950s. Generalized Additive Models showed that environmental, spatial and temporal variables are all valuable descriptors of cod catches, with the highest occurring from 15–45°E longitude and 73–77°N latitude, at bottom temperatures between 2 and 4°C and at depths between 150 and 250 m. Cod diets were highly variable during the study period, with frequent changes in the relative frequencies of different prey species, particularly Mallotus villosus (capelin). Environmental variables were particularly good at describing the importance of capelin and Clupea harengus (herring) in the diet. These new analyses support existing knowledge about how the ecology of the region is controlled by climatic variability. When viewed in combination with more recent data, these historical relationships will be valuable in forecasting the future of Barents Sea fisheries, and in understanding how environments and ecosystems may respond.