Changes in the tropical cyclone genesis potential index over the western north pacific in the SRES A2 scenario
Changes in the tropical cyclone genesis potential index over the western north pacific in the SRES A2 scenario
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DOI：
10.1007/s00376-010-9096-1
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发表时间：
2010-10
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Ying Zhang;Huijun Wang;Jianqi Sun;H. Drange
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ying Zhang;Huijun Wang;Jianqi Sun;H. Drange
利用热带气旋生成潜势指数（GPI）研究了全球变暖对西北太平洋热带气旋生成的可能影响。利用18个GCM对20世纪世纪气候的模拟结果，评价了模式通过GPI模拟热带气旋生成的能力。的GCM一般合理地再现所观察到的空间分布的成因。一些模型也显示出捕捉观测到的时间变化的能力。根据评估结果，选择在再现空间和时间特征时表现最佳的模型（CGCM3.1-T47和IPSL-CM 4）来预测未来的GPI。结果表明，这两个模型都预测了SRES A2情景下的GPI上升趋势，但两者之间的增长率不同。
The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index (GPI) was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP). The outputs of 20th century climate simulation by eighteen GCMs were used to evaluate the models’ ability to reproduce tropical cyclone genesis via the GPI. The GCMs were found in general to reasonably reproduce the observed spatial distribution of genesis. Some of the models also showed ability in capturing observed temporal variation. Based on the evaluation, the models (CGCM3.1-T47 and IPSL-CM4) found to perform best when reproducing both spatial and temporal features were chosen to project future GPI. Results show that both of these models project an upward trend of the GPI under the SRES A2 scenario, however the rate of increase differs between them.